Amplified threat of tropical cyclones to US offshore wind energy in a changing climate | Communications Earth & Environment
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The vulnerability of US offshore wind energy to tropical cyclones is a pressing concern, particularly along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, key areas for offshore wind energy development. Assessing the impact of projected climate change on tropical cyclones, and consequently on offshore wind resources, is thus critical for effective risk management. Herein, we investigate the evolving risk to offshore wind turbines posed by Atlantic tropical cyclones in a non-stationary climate using a synthetic tropical cyclone model. Integrated with climate model simulations, projections show widespread increases in tropical cyclone exposure, with historical 20-year storms occurring every  ~12.7 years on average, increasing in intensity by about 9.3 ms−1. Subsequent fragility analysis reveals that the probabilities of turbine yielding and buckling from a 20-year tropical cyclone could increase by about 37% and 13%, respectively, with regional increases reaching up to 51%. These findings carry substantial implications for the operation and future expansion of offshore wind farms. Climate change increases US offshore wind energy vulnerability to tropical cyclones, with turbine yielding and buckling probabilities rising by 37% and 13% resulting from a 20-year storm, according to a synthetic tropical cyclone model analysis.

"Our findings indicate that the spatial risk of TC-induced damage to OSW turbines along the US Atlantic and Gulf Coast regions is broadly expected to increase, with strong intermodel agreement on the sign of change (i.e., increase or decrease) in all regions assessed. Detailed regional estimates and their associated uncertainties are outlined in Table 1. Significant increases in yielding risk are expected for the Gulf Coast and Florida peninsula resulting from 20- and 50-year storms (Fig. 1), with the average risk of turbine yielding estimated to increase by nearly 40% for a 20-year storm (Fig. 1c) and 27% for a 50-year storm (Fig. 1f). The Atlantic Coast exhibits similar changes, with projected increases in turbine yielding risk of about 35% for 20-year TCs and 31% for 50-year TCs.

Buckling, being a more acute damage state than yielding, requires higher wind speeds to surpass the structural limit. Historically, the probability that 20- or 50-year storms would induce turbine buckling has been below 10% across all regions assessed. However, under future climate change, this probability is estimated to rise to as high as 57% (Table 1), with the strongest increases and future risk expected for the Southeast and Gulf Coast regions (Fig. 2). For the Gulf Coast and Florida, buckling risk from a 20-year storm is projected to increase from nearly 0% to almost 18% (Fig. 2c). This increase is far more severe when considering a 50-year storm, with the buckling risk in this region expected to grow by almost a factor of eight. Along the Atlantic Coast, the likelihood of TC-induced turbine buckling is projected to rise as well, with anticipated increases in risk of about 9% for a 20-year TC and 34% for a 50-year TC. For both turbine yielding and buckling, the likelihood of damage is markedly higher for the Southeast than the Northeast, differing by almost 12% historically and by over 24% in a simulated future climate (Table 1)."