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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: October 6th, 2023

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  • Nuclear war? Best hope you’re in a target zone, you don’t want to try and live through a nightmare where growing food may be impossible. Your canned goods will run out in months unless you can supplement them.

    Your food will be fine. Animals are going to die WAY before plants, they’re much more resistant to radiation than we are. System failure is much more likely to kill you than actual fallout.

    Global pandemic beyond what COVID-19 was? Yeah, COVID sucked, but it had a rather low kill rate. A super bug that has a rate to kill society as we know it around the globe is going to spread quickly, easily, and be highly deadly by comparison. You’re more likely to contract it and die than survive.

    A disease that kills quickly is much more likely not to spread too far. One problem with COVID-19 was that you can walk around spreading it, that doesn’t happen with ebola because by the time you’re contagious, you’re not moving. What you should worry about is a slow spreader like COVID-19, but only a few times more deadly. It doesn’t take much to collapse food and energy distribution.

    Climate change? You may be able to survive this one but you’ll need to think of how high waters will rise, how that’ll effect local growing ecology for food, etc. It’s going to be insanely rough.

    Nah, sea level rise won’t kill you. It might kill your grandkids, but climate change is mostly going to cause massive storms, and ruin farmland and destroy water supplies. System failure will kill you, not drowning. Unless you live in a river floodplain with inadequate defenses or a low shore, in which case storm-caused flooding might kill you.

    Any other plausible event? Again, it requires a massive die off in a short time or just general destructiveness that’ll kill a lot of people initially then everyone slowly afterwards.

    Oh yeah, really anything that will stop food, water or power getting to you. Or getting to someone with the ability to come get yours.


  • Non-technical, non-expert people often hugely underestimate how incredibly complex large systems are. You can’t just wheel up some generators to a bombed-out substation and plug in the local grid.

    The same applies to systems of organisation. Cities don’t know how to run this, local governments don’t know shit about power systems, so someone will have to tell them what to do. But they have to find experts to advise them, and there aren’t an infinite number of those available.

    So you’ve got a situation that is very complex, being run by an organisation out of its depth. It’s going to get fucked up no matter how well intentioned everyone is. And since they’re human, they’re not well intentioned.










  • that orbital data centers are cost-competitive compared to ground-based data centers

    Might as well work off of the assumptions that magical math-faeries will do all the computing in orbit, in exchange for candy canes. It’s about as realistic.

    Solar irradiance is only about 25-30% more efficient in orbit, so with 40% efficiency (VERY optimistic, ISS does about 14%) a 1GW orbital datacenter would require a mere 0.4 x 10^8 / 1300 m2 worth of solar panels, or a square 550m to a side.

    If we use ISS-style solar arrays, which generate ~7.5w/kg, and double the efficiency, it would weigh 66000 tons, which translates to 3800 Falcon 9 launches. Just to power it. That includes zero frames, zero GPU’s, and most importantly, zero cooling.