Seriously though, do you guys think war will/can be avoided? The Chinese government itself obviously has a much better understanding of the current situation as well as a solid theoretical framework to understand and deal with any tensions that arise, which makes me think that the odds of massively lethal war may be lower than I expect.
Maybe I am being too pessimistic, but the only way I see war between US and China being avoided is if one of them backs down economically to eliminate the contradictions that are sharpening between them. The issue there is when US says it wants China to back down it basically means China can’t exist, unless it’s a failed state unable to threaten the US unipolar dominance. China just wants the US to not be the undisputed King of the world, where they invade any country they want, kill masses via sanctions, etc. I don’t see the US stopping that, and I also don’t see China collectively giving up as a nation/superpower. The US sees it’s time ticking in regards to taking out the up and coming “threat”.
The one problem I see here for the US is Europe. Europe is much, much more split on the china question than the US. If the US can’t get Europe on it’s side 100%, there may be some bumps on the road for them. Sadly for the US, EU trade with China keeps going up. We will likely see the US try to demand Europe sanctions China, forcing them into an ultimatum. If when that time comes they benefit more from China, US may be fucked.
Seriously though, do you guys think war will/can be avoided? The Chinese government itself obviously has a much better understanding of the current situation as well as a solid theoretical framework to understand and deal with any tensions that arise, which makes me think that the odds of massively lethal war may be lower than I expect.
Maybe I am being too pessimistic, but the only way I see war between US and China being avoided is if one of them backs down economically to eliminate the contradictions that are sharpening between them. The issue there is when US says it wants China to back down it basically means China can’t exist, unless it’s a failed state unable to threaten the US unipolar dominance. China just wants the US to not be the undisputed King of the world, where they invade any country they want, kill masses via sanctions, etc. I don’t see the US stopping that, and I also don’t see China collectively giving up as a nation/superpower. The US sees it’s time ticking in regards to taking out the up and coming “threat”.
The one problem I see here for the US is Europe. Europe is much, much more split on the china question than the US. If the US can’t get Europe on it’s side 100%, there may be some bumps on the road for them. Sadly for the US, EU trade with China keeps going up. We will likely see the US try to demand Europe sanctions China, forcing them into an ultimatum. If when that time comes they benefit more from China, US may be fucked.