Did you really believe that any news with we are at the peak is not a prediction?
We do know the number of future parents for the next two decades pretty well, as most of them have been born already. So the only variable is how many children does the average women have. That has been falling every single year for the last 60 years with only a single year seeing a small increase. So this projection is most likely pretty good.
As for why it matters. It means the global workforce will stop its fast growth rate in two decades, increasing competition for workers. It means many countries are aging with all the consequences that brings. It means economic growth is not pushed as much by population growth as has seen before. Clearly there are other factors, but demographics matters a lot.
the projections are now double digit at crest wereas in the past the projections were single digit crest. My point is its a moving target and its always the prediction of a crest and not actually a crest. So I think in 20 years when we are double digits they will be talking about how we are cresting and the projections is we will hit 13 billion in 2088 and then go down much like now they say it will hit 10.6 at 2068 and then go down. really its always 50 years ahead so its basically fusion power. It will happen someday if we survive in both cases but the projections are always wrong.
Did you really believe that any news with we are at the peak is not a prediction?
We do know the number of future parents for the next two decades pretty well, as most of them have been born already. So the only variable is how many children does the average women have. That has been falling every single year for the last 60 years with only a single year seeing a small increase. So this projection is most likely pretty good.
As for why it matters. It means the global workforce will stop its fast growth rate in two decades, increasing competition for workers. It means many countries are aging with all the consequences that brings. It means economic growth is not pushed as much by population growth as has seen before. Clearly there are other factors, but demographics matters a lot.
I do. I remember peak numbers in the single digit billions and now its pushed off and in double digit. Its like that always 20 year out thing.
The population is only 8.2 billion currently. We haven’t even passed 9 billion, much less 10.
the projections are now double digit at crest wereas in the past the projections were single digit crest. My point is its a moving target and its always the prediction of a crest and not actually a crest. So I think in 20 years when we are double digits they will be talking about how we are cresting and the projections is we will hit 13 billion in 2088 and then go down much like now they say it will hit 10.6 at 2068 and then go down. really its always 50 years ahead so its basically fusion power. It will happen someday if we survive in both cases but the projections are always wrong.