This implies that local availability of competitive products exists, which for the vast majority of things in the US is not the case. So many of our goods are made overseas and imported.
Tariffs are going to raise consumer expenses till one of two things happens: Local production ramps up and provides local goods (at likely a similar or higher price because our wages are higher than overseas) or a political change occurs that results in the removal of the tariffs. Either way US consumers are going to feel the increased cost of goods for the foreseeable future…
And meanwhile many small businesses will go down since they don’t have the bargaining power like their bigger competitors. The rising prices of their suppliers will completely wipe out the tiny margins they had. Even if they raise their prices their competitors can undercut them even more aggressively now. Also quality and quantities of products will go down.
Hypothetically this could create business incentives for building local capacity, but realistically manufacturers are not going to invest with the assumption that these tariffs will be permanent. Eventually either Trump will back down or he’ll be replaced by someone else, and the tariffs will end. Why invest in manufacturing when there’s no long term guarantees for profitability?
This implies that local availability of competitive products exists, which for the vast majority of things in the US is not the case. So many of our goods are made overseas and imported.
Tariffs are going to raise consumer expenses till one of two things happens: Local production ramps up and provides local goods (at likely a similar or higher price because our wages are higher than overseas) or a political change occurs that results in the removal of the tariffs. Either way US consumers are going to feel the increased cost of goods for the foreseeable future…
And meanwhile many small businesses will go down since they don’t have the bargaining power like their bigger competitors. The rising prices of their suppliers will completely wipe out the tiny margins they had. Even if they raise their prices their competitors can undercut them even more aggressively now. Also quality and quantities of products will go down.
Hypothetically this could create business incentives for building local capacity, but realistically manufacturers are not going to invest with the assumption that these tariffs will be permanent. Eventually either Trump will back down or he’ll be replaced by someone else, and the tariffs will end. Why invest in manufacturing when there’s no long term guarantees for profitability?
Agreed that the typical, more realistic case is what will happen.
I’ve gotten into arguments with other keyboard warriors over this point, so it’s something I mention when tariffs are discussed.