On Monday, a rally in Miami organized by former Florida congressional candidate Laura Loomer seemed to attract more reporters than participants.

Jared Holt, senior research manager at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, said a handful of other groups appeared to be organizing rallies for Tuesday at the courthouse. But he noted they were attracting skepticism from doubters who accuse the organizers of setting up a “false flag” or federal honeypot trap intended to arrest Trump supporters.

In addition to the paranoia, researchers said that in the years since January 6, Trump has also lost his shine to many in his former base. “I think there’s this general sense of Trump fatigue that’s happening right now,” said Alex Friedfeld, of the Anti-Defamation League’s Center on Extremism. “We are not seeing them get as animated as they have in the recent past around issues surrounding Trump.”

Instead, Friedfeld said Trump’s base is now largely focused on the next thing — namely anti-LGTBQ+ efforts. That campaign has reflected a broader tactical shift on the far right during the last two years, to move away from organizing at a national level and refocus on local government. Now, moms groups, religious organizations and extremist groups like the Proud Boys are in common pursuit of an anti-inclusion agenda in schools, libraries and statehouses.