There is a real danger that the US-Iran crisis will extend beyond the current confrontation between Washington and Tehran, with the expiration of the Islamabad MoU making containment of this conflict increasingly challenging.
The risk of more regional states being increasingly pulled into this crisis, either directly or indirectly, is real.
Particularly alarming is the military threat that Trump issued against Oman at the time of the Islamabad MoU’s expiration. As a longstanding intermediary between the United States and Iran, Muscat has played an important role in keeping diplomatic channels open.
Even if the US taking military action against the country is an extremely unlikely scenario, Trump’s threats to do so nonetheless risk damaging Washington’s relationship with Muscat at a time in which a strong US-Oman partnership is key to de-escalation.
We’re waaaay beyond risk on that one, and it’s not just the US-Oman relationship suffering.
I read that phrasing like the headlines that say things like “Ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon on shakey ground as Israel repeatedly bombs Lebanon”… like yeah that isn’t a ceasfire anymore??