I honestly think it sure will. People will probably go in 3 directions:
- Mastodon
- Wait for Bluesky
- Wait for Instagram “Threads”
Honestly, if people go fediverse way, they definitely should choose something like Misskey/Calckey. They’re much better options than mastodon IMO
This is the thing, it is much harder to replicate your network on mastodon.
Lemmy is easy, you just look for communities of interest and join them. It’s largely a one sided affair (you the user), sure, people do have relationships in smaller communities but it’s the exception rather than the norm.
Twitter I follow about 500-600 people, and have a shade over 4000 followers. This is a lot harder to rebuild on a new platform. And many of those connections are (online) relationships built up on the platform over many years.
Moving from Twitter is a bit like leaving school. You might maintain relationships with a few of your closest friends, but on the whole, you will not see most of those people again, however much you enjoyed your time with them