My analysis on the situation.

I’ve spoken to liberal democrat friends and family who are generally very unskeptical of NATO and US imperialism. Having these conversations helps me get an idea of how some people are feeling about current events. I think a lot of people are disillusioned about how this will end in Ukraine. I hear from them that China is turning on Russia, and Russia is left alone in the world. This is total nonsense and wishful thinking.

Even the democrat administration seems to be fooled. Biden reportedly sent their intel of Russian troop movements to China, hoping China would use this against Russia. Instead, China shared what the US knew to Russia.

India is working on a system that would allow trade between India and Russia with rupees, as a work around to the West’s sanctions. Saudi Arabia, which is supposed to be an American ally, is colluding with Russia to drive up oil prices. Turkey is refusing to close the bosphorous straits to Russian ships, despite being in NATO.

All around the world, countries that have been victims of US imperialism are refusing to turn on Russia. Nicaragua, Bolivia, Venezuela, DPRK, Syria, are a few.

NATO is powerless to intervene on behalf of Ukraine. Fuel prices in the West are extremely high right now. Russia cutting off gas to Europe would make the problem significantly worse. People will freeze to death. Military action against Russia will increase fuel demand significantly. Biden has already used much of America’s fuel reserves to offset inflation. As Paul Cockschott observes, increased cost of fuel in the long term leads to more demand in biofuel, which leads to land that would be used for crops being converted. Increased food and fuel prices lead to extreme political instability. A direct war with Russia will lead the West into a new Arab spring.

It is obvious to me that Russia will be able to decide the fate of Ukraine in the end. The best NATO can do to change these terms would be to offer incentives to Russia. Knowing the inevitability, Zelensky is using the Ukrainian people as cannon fodder to make things as hard for Russia as possible. He has placed military equipment in civilian areas and has armed civilians, placing them in danger while he flees. Zelensky is a war criminal and a dictator. In October, his approval was only 25%. He has jailed former president Poroshenko and banned opposition media. Ukraine is not a democracy. No people would democratically decide to throw away their lives in a vain struggle.

Zelensky can’t win on the ground. He is not a leader. He is the performer acting the leader. As a former comedian, his skill is understanding the audience. Ukraine has been posting anti-Russian memes on twitter to a English-speaking audience. He has tried to clean up the neo-nazi image of Ukraine. The result of his excellence in commanding optics has won big tech media to his side. Big tech, which already has its tentacles entrenched in countries around the world, is a fantastic tool of US imperialism. Zelensky does not think he can win this war. The longer the war goes, the less leverage Zelensky has to negotiate with. But Zelensky knows he has a shot to win the information war.

In response to recent events, Hillary Clinton, the mother of US imperialism, has called on big tech to use its power against Russia. She has even called on individuals to take up arms in the information war. This is how propaganda replicates itself virally. Already, there are hundreds of examples of false information spreading on the web. For example, many have seen pictures of a woman bleeding from her head after a residential building exploded. These are from a gas explosion in 2018. The agenda will be to spread as many false claims of war crimes and horrendous acts as possible.

They will also use this opportunity to ban anti-imperialist media once and for all. News sources which have long been a thorn in the side of the ruling class will be banned from platforms. Sedition laws may even come into play to legally ban dissent. Not only will the imperial propaganda be overwhelming, it will be impossible to find opposing information. They will be able to invent reality as they want it. Basically 1984, except it’s the capitalists who are doing it.

So the question is, how well will this work? Can they successfully turn the people of anti-imperialist nations against their leaders? Most of these nations have adapted to these pressures I think. Domestically, they can counter the myths and block foreign regime change propaganda. The people I have spoken to seem hopeful though that the world and Russian people will turn on Putin. I think this is wishful thinking.

So this is it. The groundhog day for the American empire. Will the groundhog see its shadow? If Russia was successfully destabilized, the empire could last another six decades. Putin could be deposed, the Russian market opened up, Russian oil privatized, and the fuel crisis is averted for the West and stability restored. I think this is unlikely.

And what if the groundhog does not see its shadow? Then winter is over. This is the official end of American unipolarity after the decline of the USSR. NATO will have failed to extinguish the flame of communism, and socialist states will be able to freely usher in a new era of prosperity and international cooperation without fear of imperialism.

This is a week where decades happen. The dishonesty in the media needs to be countered. Communist parties need to stand with Russia and not NATO. This should go without saying, except many of these parties have been infiltrated. Keep an eye out for people who are challenging the narrative on Ukraine. This is how you tell the honest actors from the fake left.

Also, talk to people in your life. Don’t be afraid to challenge what they are saying. They are not bad people if they change their profile pic to Ukraine flag or whatever. It is understandable to have these concerns if you are not well informed about Ukraine and the world. You can agree to disagree sometimes. I think it helps that people know they have friends who think a certain way. If you set a good example in your life and others think you are a good person, they will hesitate before bad mouthing “those awful anti-NATO conspiracists” or whatever it is.

My heart goes out to everyone who unfortunately find themselves on the front lines of American imperialism too. This will all be over soon