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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: March 25th, 2022

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  • The biggest issue is that the French army, much like any other western army, has no experience in fighting peers. The only two countries in the world which have that are Russia and Ukraine. French officers themselves admitted that the russian army is not the main (arguably only) reference when it comes to peer-to-peer combat operations.

    French troops would not fare any better than the élite, nato-equipped ukrainian brigades that smashed their heads against the Surovikin line.

    I will say this tho - i never thought i would live to see german tanks burn on russian soil again, and i am sort of excited to see the french being beaten out of russia again


  • i mean this is like the americans entering vietnam. You expect to fight a ragtag militia, and instead you find a competent fighting force forged in generations upon generations of hardship.

    I’m no longer a soldier but if i were, Gaza is literally the last place i would want to enter. Urban hellscape, the bombings created makeshift shelters everywhere, and you have an enemy who’s been preparing to fight you for decades and has a literal network of underground tunnels. There is literally no way to win this, the only way is to flatten the place from the air. Which is what israel is doing.





  • two things make me hopeful that something bigger is brewing:

    1. The IDF ws undeniably taken by surprise. How did they miss something this big? Either Hamas got some massive outside support in terms of counter-intelligence, which means there are state actors that are actively involved, or the zionist intelligence apparatus is far weaker than we are led to believe. Which by extension leads to the question of how battle-ready the IDF actually is. Perhaps there are weaknesses to be exploited we are not yet aware of? There are reports of entire reserve units refusing to deploy near Gaza. Perhaps the morale and motivation of the average IDF soldier is lower than we think? At the end of the day they are conscripts, willing to shell palestinian civilians from afar but much less enthusiastic at the ideas of walking into the narrow streets of Gaza.

    2. Hamas has limited resources. Black market weapons and smuggling only get you so far, and with a very battered population of slightly more than half a million, a full-on frontal attack looks very unreasonable. Right now it looks like Hamas is sacrificing everything to fight an unwinnable war, and that just can’t be the case unless the plan was to resist for decades only to commit a state-suicide. Couple this with the reports of a “tense” situation on the lebanese border, the warnings of retaliation by Egypt if Gaza is invaded, the quick endorsement that came from Saudi Arabia… Plus the ominous messages on resistance channels claiming stuff like “the worst is yet to come” and “this is just the beginning”. This can’t be it, there has to be a plan besides “let’s all run into israeli cities with our ak’s”



  • I think this is the case because the west isn’t used to fighting an enemy that can match their might.

    Think Iraq. Why bother with a narrative? There is a certainty of victory, no damage will come to the west, and iraqi media sure as hell isn’t reaching our audiences. So just make up an excuse, invade, and let people forget it until the next current thing.

    But russia? It can fight back, it has political and economic leverage, it forces europe to suffer economically, it can inflict losses and shatter the image of nato equipment being unbeatable.

    So the media has to scramble to find reasons why we should keep fighting the russians, because our collective subconscious knows that fighting russia is a bad idea in general. The result of this scrambling is a lot of contrasting narratives that keep contradicting each other. Specially because russia itself has the power to counter western narratives and highlight the falsehoods.

    Remember Soledar for example? “the situation is difficult but we are holding” until russians started posting selfies from inside the town and it became clear that the UAF had been routed from there days ago.

    Or also when they kept claiming that reddit truesim that “attackers suffer 7 times more casualties” during the battle of Bakhmut an excuse to support the “we are grinding them down by losing” narrative. Now ukraine is attacking and people are asking “wait a second, we were told attackers take 7 times more losses, how is ukraine affording this?”

    In short, much like they are not used to fighting competent enemies on the ground, they are not used to fighting competent enemies in the media/internet arena. The result is a clusterfuck of lies covered by other lies as soon as they get found out.


  • 30k russians walked into kiev and retreated with minimal losses, it’s not the own you think it is.

    And Ukraine has been claiming that this was the offensive to liberate crimea for the last six months. They committed their élite western trained brigades and the most modern equipment that was given to them, including the famous leopards. This is what their “being ready” looks like, and it barely put a dent into the outermost lines of russian defences