So far reality is tracking closer to AI 2027 than even we expected. (2027 was our modal year at time of publication, not our median.)
They aren’t even trying to hide the fact that their predictions have already failed but instead claiming victory.
They just don’t call it model collapse, and that fixes the problem.
Reminds me of OpenAI’s blog post explaining the goblins. It described textbook model collapse, but somehow avoided saying the actual words “model collapse” even once.
edit: Nevermind… The Epstein Hysteria
That is pretty bad… all the standard rationalist thick-headed idiocy and quibbling details and choice of gross example. But even so if that is their worst, they still aren’t in the worst quartile of rationalist.
here’s how two robot gods who can perfectly emulate each other might work things out
Just gotta solve the halting problem, no biggie for a superintelligence or Eliezer.
Well you see, the acausalrobotgod actually hates dealing with assholes tying themselves in knots trying to predict its predictions, so actually you really are better off with CDT if you don’t want to get 3^^^3 dust specks in your eyes for all eternity.
More seriously, once you start positing beings that can perfectly predict you and reward/punish various decision theories you can basically rationalize any decision theory.
The whole algorithm predicting your algorithm thing feels like it is basically asking for/claiming the existence of a solution to the halting problem? But yeah, moot point, because the FDT stuff doesn’t get as far as ever talking about how to compute an answer and always treats the magic hyper computation as a given.
Some lesswrongers are happy about this news, talking up how their P(doom) is lower and that sort of thing. Of course some of them are sinophobic and worried now China will take the lead, which is obviously worse.
More the later than the former… they are better than purely marketing focused stuff pushed out by the LLM companies, and if you dig through them and read between the lines you can occasionally sift out useful details. Like here is a pretty solid sneer digging through Mythos’s ‘system card’ and pointing out all the ways it contradicts the hype and press headlines Anthropic was pushing.
But even so they have some big problems…
I think this would be funny if a cool, normal guy said it.
The word foid is a very clear alarm bell. But yeah, without that word and a different framing and it could be a guy humbly acknowledging that women’s health has a lot of extra complications.
poisonai is actually trying to update them about key facts. You should always followup a general internet search or information automatically found and put in your context with a specific search on www.reddit.com/r/poisonai/ to see what the latest nuanced details are.
He’s picked what, Yahoo, AMD, and Alibaba? But then he also lost a huge amount in the dotcom bust and WeWork and doesn’t have have any other notable picks? That’s not a golden goose, that a gambler that got lucky thrice and nearly went bust twice, and it will be 3 times if he keeps tripling down on OpenAI.
The AI 2027 guy is taking credit for being a good forecaster: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cxuzALcmucCndYv4a/daniel-kokotajlo-s-shortform?commentId=44KvqZEG2vwKCaFAu
Recently an interviewer asked me how I got to be such a good forecaster, and I replied by saying something humble. In retrospect it was a bad answer because I should have instead used the opportunity to give actual advice on how to forecast AI well.
Reminder, according to this guy (originally, he has already nudged the dates of his prophecies back a few years), we are supposed to be having agents replace human workers in mass this year, and be one year out from a superhuman coding agent and researcher that radically iteratively improves itself.
We joked about how the AI 2027 people would try to pivot as they were proven wrong… I think they are going to outright try to claim credit for being ‘right’ despite all their critical prophecies being wrong by claiming credit for secondary details.
When banning people takes several ten thousand word essays going back and forth, how can you trust that responsibility to lesser mortals?
Literally just started a discussion on European booster fanfic hype a few days ago: https://awful.systems/post/8591627/11736760
I wonder if Europe 2031 will get a boost out of this, it is really perfect timing for them, they can even claim an early prediction success on the US cutting Europe off! (But as with AI 2027, Europe 2031 assumes a much more competent US that can implement strategies like that in a competent fashion instead of some disorganized demands after 5pm on a Friday).
That got blocked in court… or one of the two legal mechanisms by which the SCR could work got blocked, the other didn’t? Something messy and stupid and complicated like that.
And of course, that all got ignored with US government participation in Glasswing. So idk… it’s all so chaotic and stupid.
The move to block it for everyone does conveniently feed into Anthropic’s “it’s too powerful” narrative, but Anthropic is keen to demonstrate in this case that the issue they believe has been raised also applies to OpenAI, so I don’t think this was part of their original marketing strategy - even if it can easily be folded into it.
It also saves them on the cost of actually serving the model, and stalls the cycle of people gradually realizing the new model isn’t much better than the previous one.
Anthropic’s fear mongering has finally backfired! The US government ordered them to suspend all foreign access to Fable and Mythos: https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access
Well, I’m not sure this has properly backfired. They were probably struggling to serve the models to everyone, and they were probably losing a lot of money on everyone with subscription access using Fable for the free trial period. And there was a lot of complaints about how insanely oversensitive Fable’s censors and guardrails were. Now they get all the benefits and hype of having released the model, without having to pay the insane costs (or the letdown of people releasing it is just another incremental step)! (Well, depending on how much flexibility they have in their GPU cloud access). If this blows over in a few weeks it will probably be worthwhile for the hype “Our models are so dangerous the government had to ban foreign access”.
Also, funnily enough the US banning foreign access to their models was a major plot point in the Europe 2031 booster fanfic I recently boosted. Of course there, it was a massive point of leverage against Europe and led to immense value loss to the Europeans, where irl Fable/Mythos are just another incremental step (if even that much) being marketed very well.
We can (and probably will) keep having AI bubbles as long as capitalism exists (and thus rich idiots with too much money are looking for ways to get richer) and there are new AI approaches/paradigms (with flashy demo-able potential) left to discover.
It might have come this decade, had they faithfully funded the path of symbolic AI, but instead they wandered around in the desert chasing the false idols of connectionism and deep learning.
My favorite part was the section where they worked out the logistics of China hiding a data center inside of a mountain.