“The interplay within and between different physical and social systems … are often only poorly understood. This leads to large and growing uncertainty estimates and a wide range of incompletely understood and underestimated risks. For example, the potential for climate change impacts to drive social discontent, dislocation and relocation, and instability and conflict, are all deeply uncertain, but potentially crippling.”
The vast majority of economists and analysts are doing a good job imo. They know that each model has its limits, and they clearly say that in their papers.
I feel the problems often arise after the research gets published and an armada of interest groups are trying to “interpret” the results according to their needs and wants. We frequently see lobbyists picking and choosing only the details that support their views, politicians seeking simple and quick solutions to complex long-term issues, and journalists and “bloggers” quoting studies without reading them.