Image is of the aftermath of an Israeli bombing of Beirut in 2006.
We are now almost one year into the war and genocide in Gaza. Despite profound hardship, the Gazan Resistance continues its battles against the enemy, entirely undeterred. Despite Israeli proclamations throughout 2024 that they have cleared out Hamas from various places throughout Gaza, we still see regular attacks and ambushes against Zionist forces. Just today (Monday), Al Qassam fighters ambushed and destroyed another convoy of Israeli vehicles. The predictions early on in the war were that Israel would defeat Hamas in mere months, needing only until December, then January, and so on. This has proven very much untrue. Israel is stuck in the mud; unable to destroy their enemy due to their lack of knowledge about the “Gaza Metro” and, of course, a lack of actual fighting skill, given how many times I’ve seen Zionists getting shot while they gaze wistfully out of windows.
The same quagmire will occur in Lebanon, only considerably worse. Both Nasrallah and Sinwar possess a similar strategy of luring Zionist forces onto known, friendly territory, replete with traps and ambushes, to bleed them dry of equipment, manpower, and the will to continue fighting. The scale of the invasion could fall anywhere on the spectrum from “very limited” - more of a series of raids on Hezbollah positions than truly trying to occupy land - to a total invasion which would seek to permanently take control of Southern Lebanon. Neither is likely to destroy, or even substantially diminish Hezbollah’s fighting abilities. This is not wishful thinking: Hezbollah has convincingly defeated Israel twice before in its history, pushing them from their territory, and both times Hezbollah had almost no missiles and a limited supply of other equipment, relying on improvisation as often as not. The Hezbollah of 2024 is an entirely different organization to that of the early 2000s.
Attempts to drive wedges between Hezbollah and the rest of Lebanon are also unlikely to succeed. Hezbollah is not just a military force, it is extremely interlinked into various communities throughout Lebanon, drawing upon those communities to recruit soldiers. Throughout its history, it has provided education, healthcare, reconstruction, and dozens of other services one would attribute to a state. Amal Saad’s recent suggestion of using “quasi-state actor” as a more respectful replacement for the typical “non-state actor” seems advisable. And the decentralized command structures, compartmented leadership, strong succession planning, and aforementioned community ties almost entirely neutralizes the effectiveness of assassinations. Hezbollah’s Deputy Secretary General Naim Qassem has confirmed that Hezbollah’s path has been set by Nasrallah, and his martyrdom will not stop nor even pause their efforts. Additionally, he confirmed that despite the recent attacks by Israel which nominally focussed on destroying missile depots, Hezbollah’s supply of weapons has not been degraded, and they are still only using the minimum of their capabilities.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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NYT is reporting that Pezeshkian wasn’t even informed of the missile launch until after it happened. I don’t doubt it, I would do the same thing if I was the IRGC. Need to find a little baby box with some jangly keys and IMF Loan paperwork to keep him busy and distracted and prevent him from fucking anything up for the resistance
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It seems like Israel or it’s proxies might have tried to bomb a Russian weapons shipment in Syria. But geopolitically speaking, what would Russia have to gain from giving security guarantees to Iran that worth the risk to them of a world war?
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I am Nostradamus
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More than 20 F-35 aircraft of the Israeli Air Force were hit during the missile strike of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on the territory of the Jewish state.
I doubt this is true, I imagine that they’d have sent most of them up into the sky to prevent this from happening. The airbases might be cooked but the number of planes hit must be like single-digit if it’s not outright zero if Israel is even remotely competent (I know that’s a hard task to ask of them but still).
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If the libs win, why does the west bother fighting rather than integrating? Pathological racism?
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For example, the PMI index in the manufacturing industries fell to 49.5 points in September.
Worth noting that this is in line with the average worldwide manufacturing PMI; except for a brief blip earlier this year, the world’s been in a manufacturing recession for a couple years now. I’d imagine it’s mostly Europe dragging it down, but they cannot (yet) be dismissed as an economic force, they are a pretty significant part of the global economy. So that has inevitably had knock-on effects everywhere else.
Other than that, this is a fine glass of Russian doomerism. Classic, sweet, lovely mouthfeel. I’m not a fan of the part at the end where they imply there’s a year and a half left, usually my Russian doomers give the country only a few months before total collapse, but that’s all I really have for criticism.
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The first four points are good, then it starts getting more and more deranged, but he manages to bring it back by pointing out that Ukraine and Israel bomb civilians on purpose (Zelensky’s “victory plan” for Ukraine included the terror bombings of Russian cities using NATO weaponry), then it descends into derangement again, but he manages to bring it back with the last point, which is the key to everything.
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“The starting point for all US strategy since the 1970s was that Democracies no longer can field a domestic army with a military draft.
This is incorrect.
Imperialist democracies can’t field a domestic army with a draft. I’m quite sure that you can field a domestic army with a draft as long as the cause is just though. The issue is that you can’t fight wars people don’t want.
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These are some banger deraged ramblings
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Here’s basically a claim in the Guardian that Israel has finally just decided that using Iron Dome is too expensive, so it isn’t even bothering to try to intercept Iran’s missiles. LMFAAAAAAAO.
It, of course, also repeats the claim that the attack was an utter failure because there were allegedly no fatalities. And the usual overblown claims of how effective the missile defense systems are.
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I hope to god that the Chineses will not make the same mistake that the russians and iranians did and entertain negotiations and peace talks with the west in condition of them backing off.
I used to think otherwise but as i’ve grown older i’ve come to understand that most of the time the only way that people learn that the stove is hot is by burning their fingers. China’s going to need to get burned quite a few times, just like Russia and Iran, before they really understand who they’re dealing with. Honestly the only country that has always understood exactly who the West is and how one must deal with them is the DPRK. Everyone else has to learn the hard way, sometimes many times over.
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A full-scale war is indeed bad but…
Jonathan Panikoff, the director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council…
“A full-scale war, or even a more limited one, could be devastating for Lebanon, Israel, and the region. But from it, unexpected opportunities will also come — to undermine Iranian malign influence in the region, for example, by actively impeding its efforts to reconstitute Hezbollah. And a new administration should be prepared to take advantage of them."
NYT: A Wider War in the Middle East, From Hamas to Hezbollah and Now Iran
Ghoulish fuckers must revel in their fantasies of mass death and suffering.
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Edit
I posted that before I read the next paragraph. Holy mother of fuck.
That is what old wars and hot wars do. They create new power dynamics, vacuums to be filled.
The region is already full of client states of the empire that took centuries to install. if a regional war erupte some of them might not survive and the military forces of the west will get kicked out as well. Let’s not talk about the oil infrastructure that will get destroyed and will take god knows how long to rebuild. Western economies are already suffering especially with a sanction war looming with china. I can go on and on on how it is a bad idea.
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