I’ve been engineering in the industry for 13 years now. Every time it swings down it is declared dead.
I’m not saying its dead (even if I see no value in crypto myself). I’m pointing out that the main behavior that Bitcoin is suppose to have, strength against collapsing fiat currency, is absent. At a time when the formula should have Bitcoin shining and rising, its instead falling like a rock far worse than equities which can be quite volatile themselves.
It is going higher. It’s stuck in this odd 4-year cycle. Gets a bit flatter every time, but still swings pretty hard!
I had just been introduced to this 4 year cycle theory in the past couple of weeks. An issue with it is that the predicted 4 year decline should have happened in 2026, but instead it was in Oct 2025. Its early this time. Or said another way: the 4 year cycle theory isn’t holding anymore.
The ATH was Oct 2025. The exact day and velocity of the rapid decline is certainly not precise to the day. I’d expect the whole cycle thing being even within 6mo of 4 years from the prior.
It’s a guideline, not some magic exact rule.
Also, it’s triggered by the halving of block reward, which is every 210k(?) blocks, not some known time period.
I’m not saying its dead (even if I see no value in crypto myself). I’m pointing out that the main behavior that Bitcoin is suppose to have, strength against collapsing fiat currency, is absent. At a time when the formula should have Bitcoin shining and rising, its instead falling like a rock far worse than equities which can be quite volatile themselves.
I had just been introduced to this 4 year cycle theory in the past couple of weeks. An issue with it is that the predicted 4 year decline should have happened in 2026, but instead it was in Oct 2025. Its early this time. Or said another way: the 4 year cycle theory isn’t holding anymore.
The ATH was Oct 2025. The exact day and velocity of the rapid decline is certainly not precise to the day. I’d expect the whole cycle thing being even within 6mo of 4 years from the prior.
It’s a guideline, not some magic exact rule.
Also, it’s triggered by the halving of block reward, which is every 210k(?) blocks, not some known time period.