Germany's ruling Social Democrats are in a bad way. The latest polling shows how turned off voters are by the center-left and the man it chose to run the country.
Essentially Germans showing that they are lost and all the media brain-washing has driven them so insane, all they want is to live in a fantasy world of the last century and rot away there.
People advocating for cutting down investments after 16 years of no investments and infrastructure literally breaking down around them (plus things where they are already at least a decade behind the modern world) get votes.
People advocating that mass deportation of illegal immigrants will solve everything (in reality there are basically no illegal immigrants and the total amount that can be legally deported is less than 20k in a country of 84 million) get votes.
People advocating for cutting back imaginary “gifts” for low-income citizens when that raise in social support is actually mandated just as an inflationary adjustment and courts have ruled again and again that reduction far beyond a subsistence minimum is unconstitutional get votes.
People advocating for less climate protection to kill the planet more efficiently (also unconstitutional btw…) get votes.
The government that by any objective metric has already realized more of their promises in 2 years than their predecessors managed in 8 while seeing one global crisis after another and an opposition that has degenerated to pure obstructionism is somehow “the worst government Germany ever had and really should just give up and make space for re-elections”.
I’ve just talked with some friends of mine about this. The Media is really rotting the brains of people. With discussion where you only have a few seconds to summarise a possible solution to a highly complex thematic (perfect for populism, terrible for real answers), CONSTANT statistics about party popularity and literally no Punishment for lies and propaganda being spread through social media.
No one even tries to fact check anything, horrible racist things being said in broad daylight and everything good our government does is being belittled or ignored.
And everyone has this insane fear that some else might have it a bit easier then them.
I Fucking hate it. I can’t stand this! Why, GOD WHY, are People so unbelievable stupid!?
Indeed, it already starts with the first few words of this article. Nobody who has any brain left would categorise the current day SPD as “centre left”. They sold out the little bit of left left in them under Schröder. They are just one more neoliberal centrist party these days.
As Clinton said: “It is the economy stupid”. The conservatives had two economic crisis during the last 16 years. After the big financial crisis 2008 Merkel could have been deposed, if the SPD would have been willing to go into a coalition with the Left. They next crisis was Covid, which brought the current government. At the same time the SPD is not that popular to begin with. 2017 they got 20% of the votes and the last conservative canidate was really unpopular so Scholz was able to beat him. Now they are 5% lower, which is bad, but no crazy. The Liberals have only ever won with protest votes anyway and they can not hide while in government. So that is normal too.
Also really important to mention that this is about half time. The next federal election is in two years. So right now is the time politicans do the unpopular, but necessary stuff. Then the population forgets that that happend. The heating bill is a great example. It was hugely unpopular, but it passed and nobody talks about it anymore.
What is really bad is the current budget crisis and you have to admit that having an unconstitutional budget is a massive problem and a failure of the finance minister to do his job. Obviously this is unpopular.
Anyway there are two more years to go. The economy propably recovers until that point and the government ends up setting up a huge gift package to be reelected. There is also plenty of time for a scandal and Merz has done a few of them already.
The heating bill is a great example. It was hugely unpopular, but it passed and nobody talks about it anymore.
I think you are missing the actual point here: The heating bill wasn’t unpopular per se. It was made so by a massive propaganda campaign in the media full of lies. And it isn’t talked about anymore because the propaganda has moved on to the next lie. And after that comes the next.
And nobody cares about reality. Not today, not in 2 years. People that fall for every single lie today, will fall for lies in two years. They are not suddenly developing the ability to discern reality from what right wing tabloids and their favorite facebook group tell them.
also:
There is also plenty of time for a scandal and Merz has done a few of them already
What scandal do you expect? He did openly lie again and again, he parroted right-extremist’s talking points again and again. He loudly advocated for reducing AfD votes and then is basically their biggest advertiser. He also threatend everyone cooperating with them with exclusion from the party and then excused and indirectly indorsed cooperation with the AfD. Just yesterday we got a report about Merz asking the government nicely for money from the climate transformation fund he got scrapped by sueing two days after the court ruling just for laughs and giggles. And the whole CDU has moved to full scale obstructionism for the sake of obstructionism. Yet Merz and his party get votes for it. There is no magical scandal of an opposiiton party that will change those voters minds. That would require them to have the power to do and fuck up anything. Are you expecting Merz to ritually sacrifice some children in public?
The heating bill was unpopular because it is a massive hit to the gas industry, which has a famously great lobby and amazing connections to the media. Germanys gas imports are down by 71% comparing September this year with 2021. That is mainly due to the lack of Russian gas transit via Germany, but it massivly hurts the industry. Half of Germanys gas consumption comes from heating buildings, which will be solved by the heating bill. That kind of attack would not happen in an election year.
As for Merz the current polling of the Union party would be considered bad under Merkel. For Laschet a stupid joke was enough to kill his chances of victory, Merz does worse on a monthly bases. He should be at the 40% mark and not at 30%.
In terms of immigration we are also in desperate need of a larger work force to support and care for all the old people, the very same old people who vote for the parties advocating for deportations.
You could start here for the current government, as that’s very transparent.
For the last 2018-2021 government several news did similiar projects, this one for example (because that one done by Süddeutsche Zeitung fittingly evaluated the former government also after 2 years of their 4 year term).
It already starts with 269 vs just 142 planned policies… with several ones out of those 142 directly broken (arms exports to Egypt, downbload-filters).
(And although you didn’t ask: If you are looking for arguments “for the holydays”… here’s another one that might come up. Yes, the energy transition is also working:
Essentially Germans showing that they are lost and all the media brain-washing has driven them so insane, all they want is to live in a fantasy world of the last century and rot away there.
People advocating for cutting down investments after 16 years of no investments and infrastructure literally breaking down around them (plus things where they are already at least a decade behind the modern world) get votes.
People advocating that mass deportation of illegal immigrants will solve everything (in reality there are basically no illegal immigrants and the total amount that can be legally deported is less than 20k in a country of 84 million) get votes.
People advocating for cutting back imaginary “gifts” for low-income citizens when that raise in social support is actually mandated just as an inflationary adjustment and courts have ruled again and again that reduction far beyond a subsistence minimum is unconstitutional get votes.
People advocating for less climate protection to kill the planet more efficiently (also unconstitutional btw…) get votes.
The government that by any objective metric has already realized more of their promises in 2 years than their predecessors managed in 8 while seeing one global crisis after another and an opposition that has degenerated to pure obstructionism is somehow “the worst government Germany ever had and really should just give up and make space for re-elections”.
I’ve just talked with some friends of mine about this. The Media is really rotting the brains of people. With discussion where you only have a few seconds to summarise a possible solution to a highly complex thematic (perfect for populism, terrible for real answers), CONSTANT statistics about party popularity and literally no Punishment for lies and propaganda being spread through social media.
No one even tries to fact check anything, horrible racist things being said in broad daylight and everything good our government does is being belittled or ignored. And everyone has this insane fear that some else might have it a bit easier then them.
I Fucking hate it. I can’t stand this! Why, GOD WHY, are People so unbelievable stupid!?
Indeed, it already starts with the first few words of this article. Nobody who has any brain left would categorise the current day SPD as “centre left”. They sold out the little bit of left left in them under Schröder. They are just one more neoliberal centrist party these days.
As Clinton said: “It is the economy stupid”. The conservatives had two economic crisis during the last 16 years. After the big financial crisis 2008 Merkel could have been deposed, if the SPD would have been willing to go into a coalition with the Left. They next crisis was Covid, which brought the current government. At the same time the SPD is not that popular to begin with. 2017 they got 20% of the votes and the last conservative canidate was really unpopular so Scholz was able to beat him. Now they are 5% lower, which is bad, but no crazy. The Liberals have only ever won with protest votes anyway and they can not hide while in government. So that is normal too.
Also really important to mention that this is about half time. The next federal election is in two years. So right now is the time politicans do the unpopular, but necessary stuff. Then the population forgets that that happend. The heating bill is a great example. It was hugely unpopular, but it passed and nobody talks about it anymore.
What is really bad is the current budget crisis and you have to admit that having an unconstitutional budget is a massive problem and a failure of the finance minister to do his job. Obviously this is unpopular.
Anyway there are two more years to go. The economy propably recovers until that point and the government ends up setting up a huge gift package to be reelected. There is also plenty of time for a scandal and Merz has done a few of them already.
I think you are missing the actual point here: The heating bill wasn’t unpopular per se. It was made so by a massive propaganda campaign in the media full of lies. And it isn’t talked about anymore because the propaganda has moved on to the next lie. And after that comes the next.
And nobody cares about reality. Not today, not in 2 years. People that fall for every single lie today, will fall for lies in two years. They are not suddenly developing the ability to discern reality from what right wing tabloids and their favorite facebook group tell them.
also:
What scandal do you expect? He did openly lie again and again, he parroted right-extremist’s talking points again and again. He loudly advocated for reducing AfD votes and then is basically their biggest advertiser. He also threatend everyone cooperating with them with exclusion from the party and then excused and indirectly indorsed cooperation with the AfD. Just yesterday we got a report about Merz asking the government nicely for money from the climate transformation fund he got scrapped by sueing two days after the court ruling just for laughs and giggles. And the whole CDU has moved to full scale obstructionism for the sake of obstructionism. Yet Merz and his party get votes for it. There is no magical scandal of an opposiiton party that will change those voters minds. That would require them to have the power to do and fuck up anything. Are you expecting Merz to ritually sacrifice some children in public?
The heating bill was unpopular because it is a massive hit to the gas industry, which has a famously great lobby and amazing connections to the media. Germanys gas imports are down by 71% comparing September this year with 2021. That is mainly due to the lack of Russian gas transit via Germany, but it massivly hurts the industry. Half of Germanys gas consumption comes from heating buildings, which will be solved by the heating bill. That kind of attack would not happen in an election year.
As for Merz the current polling of the Union party would be considered bad under Merkel. For Laschet a stupid joke was enough to kill his chances of victory, Merz does worse on a monthly bases. He should be at the 40% mark and not at 30%.
Analysis on point, thank you. Biggest problem of the current government is the opposition party which is part of it.
In terms of immigration we are also in desperate need of a larger work force to support and care for all the old people, the very same old people who vote for the parties advocating for deportations.
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But your right to vote doesn’t. And we are probalby close to an age of 60 for a 50/50 voter split now.
Do you by any chance have any sources for that part? Could be really useful for the upcoming holidays
You could start here for the current government, as that’s very transparent.
For the last 2018-2021 government several news did similiar projects, this one for example (because that one done by Süddeutsche Zeitung fittingly evaluated the former government also after 2 years of their 4 year term).
It already starts with 269 vs just 142 planned policies… with several ones out of those 142 directly broken (arms exports to Egypt, downbload-filters).
(And although you didn’t ask: If you are looking for arguments “for the holydays”… here’s another one that might come up. Yes, the energy transition is also working:
Thank you
Not the person you replied to but they are probably referring to this study among other things https://www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/fileadmin/files/Projekte/New_Democracy/230906_BST_Studie_Koalitionsversprechen_Halbzeitbilanz_ID1875_screen.pdf