For sure, I made that mistake at the start of the war as well. It seemed like every skirmish was going to be relevant somehow. After a while I realized that it’s pretty safe to ignore most of the reporting about small positional changes and who captured what hill on a particular day.
And completely agree that at the end of the day it all comes down to the logistics. The military will adapt and evolve as it faces new problems. There are smart and determined people on both sides who are constantly working on ways to get upper hand. The industry problem on the other hand is much harder to solve. Russia has a huge advantage because they retained a lot of the Soviet industry that they’re now modernizing and expanding on. Russia also has a stronger education system that has more focus on trade jobs, which is key for having skilled workers to operate the factories. And of course, Russia is next to China and India giving them access to two large manufacturing powers. Even DPRK likely has a bigger industrial base than most of Europe.
Another big factor here is the economic war between Russia and the west. Since Ukraine is entirely dependent on the west for everything, what really matters is the economic war. The west realized this early on, and they thought they could choke off Russian economy via sanctions. This backfired spectacularly, and now it looks like it’s European economy that’s being destroyed instead.
While Europe keeps pumping money into Ukraine, there is serious civil unrest brewing internally. One huge factor is that energy prices went up because LNG is way more expensive than pipeline gas. Initially, European governments started giving out subsidies to keep the public happy. The idea was that they were just going to have to weather a few months and then Russia would collapse. That didn’t happen, and the subsidies are no longer sustainable. This is what’s driving all the farmer protests across Europe now. They simply can’t make ends meet with the new energy prices and no government support.
For sure, I made that mistake at the start of the war as well. It seemed like every skirmish was going to be relevant somehow. After a while I realized that it’s pretty safe to ignore most of the reporting about small positional changes and who captured what hill on a particular day.
And completely agree that at the end of the day it all comes down to the logistics. The military will adapt and evolve as it faces new problems. There are smart and determined people on both sides who are constantly working on ways to get upper hand. The industry problem on the other hand is much harder to solve. Russia has a huge advantage because they retained a lot of the Soviet industry that they’re now modernizing and expanding on. Russia also has a stronger education system that has more focus on trade jobs, which is key for having skilled workers to operate the factories. And of course, Russia is next to China and India giving them access to two large manufacturing powers. Even DPRK likely has a bigger industrial base than most of Europe.
Another big factor here is the economic war between Russia and the west. Since Ukraine is entirely dependent on the west for everything, what really matters is the economic war. The west realized this early on, and they thought they could choke off Russian economy via sanctions. This backfired spectacularly, and now it looks like it’s European economy that’s being destroyed instead.
While Europe keeps pumping money into Ukraine, there is serious civil unrest brewing internally. One huge factor is that energy prices went up because LNG is way more expensive than pipeline gas. Initially, European governments started giving out subsidies to keep the public happy. The idea was that they were just going to have to weather a few months and then Russia would collapse. That didn’t happen, and the subsidies are no longer sustainable. This is what’s driving all the farmer protests across Europe now. They simply can’t make ends meet with the new energy prices and no government support.