Saeculum [he/him, comrade/them]

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  • 81 Comments
Joined 10 months ago
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Cake day: September 9th, 2023

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  • This means that you have to train crews for each specific tank, and if one tank breaks down, you cannot use parts of another tank to repair it.

    Sure, but they have trained crews for each specific tank.

    Nobody in Europe wants to fight Russia, the calls for conscription are much more likely to topple pro NATO governments than accomplish anything else. People are already literally rioting all across Europe, and anti war parties are gaining popularity by the day.

    I don’t know what riots you’re talking about, the pension protests in France? The farmers protests in Germany, Belgium and the UK?

    Anti-Russian sentiment is very strong, especially in Eastern Europe, and most of the large nations are likely to have enough volunteers to remove the need for conscription in the mid term.

    Nothing of the sort happened. Only thing EU managed to achieve was to drive up the price.

    Ammunition production across Europe has significantly increased, and continues to increase, the price has gone up per shell sure, but that doesn’t contradict an increase in production.

    The only western source that provides any actual methodology puts Russian losses at around 47k, it’s absurd to call that considerable for a country with a population of 140 million.

    The source you linked doesn’t place losses “around” 47k, it established 47k as the absolute minimum, and provides a higher estimate based on excess mortality. With roughly 100k dead, you’d normally expect to see 2-3x that in injuries rending personnel unfit for service with modern battlefield medicine, and 300-400k gone is more than the entire Russian active combat personnel before the escalation of the war in 2022.

    Russia has already stated that they will continue to push in Ukraine and will directly engage NATO if NATO decides to put boots on the ground. This an existential war for Russia, and it’s not about Ukraine. The war is about NATO expansion, and Russia will call NATO bluffs.

    Assuming it is a bluff. Russia is already bordered by NATO in the Baltic for hundreds of miles, it can survive a NATO Ukraine in the same way that China has survived being surrounded by US allies along it’s entire eastern border.



  • We now know for a fact that nothing is actually standardized in practice.

    We know that there are issues with Standardisation, but I haven’t seen anything to suggest that literally the entire stockpile of European weaponry managed to fall outside of standardisation without NATO noticing.

    In fact, lack of standardization with western equipment is now proving to be a nightmare in Ukraine.

    Ukraine has been getting the bottom of the barrel of the US and NATO military stockpiles. Mostly stuff from the mid cold war, on schedule for decommissioning.

    NATO hasn’t done any serious exercises in literally decades, and vast majority of the 1.5 million military personnel are not active combat personnel.

    They’re doing a few right now, and on top of that, they’ve been fighting low-level proxy wars across the middle east for the past two decades.

    This is true, but there have also been no calls for wartime recruitment or conscription, the number has the potential to multiply to several times larger within a year or two.

    Europe is now out of basic things like artillery shells and lacks industrial capacity to produce them.

    European shell manufacturing capability has apparently doubled in the past two years and is supposedly on track to do so again by 2025, with current US and EU manufacturing at roughly half of what Russia is currently producing. They do still have some stockpiles, and on top of 155mm shells, the various European NATO powers have large stockpiles of cruise missiles, bombs and rockets.

    On top of that, Russia now has the most seasoned army in the world that’s seen real combat on a massive scale for two years now.

    While true, they have also suffered considerable losses (though probably less than Ukraine proportionally). To effectively respond to NATO boots on the ground, they’d conservatively need to double their current number of active personnel, which lessens the experience advantage.

    And of course, the elephant in the room here is nuclear weapons. A direct conflict between NATO and Russia would almost certainly end in a nuclear exchange. If Europeans genuinely don’t understand this then we are all truly doomed. On the bright side we won’t have to worry about global warming anymore.

    Of course, though brinkmanship does cut both ways. Is Russia willing to risk nuclear war to take Kiev? Probably not IMO.

    There’s also the potential to limit it to a conventional conflict if it’s made very clear there is no intention to stray outside the pre-war borders of Ukraine.



  • The European union has a combined 1.5 million active military personnel, 5000 MBTs, and over a thousand combined fighter aircraft. As a part of their NATO membership, the vast majority of European forces have ammunition commonality and a standardised command structure.

    Yes it would be disorganised, yes it would be a political shit show, but the European countries that are likely to get involved in the event of an intervention have a force and equipment parity with Russia, on top of an enormous disparity in population and economy.

    It doesn’t seem particularly wise to dismiss them out of hand.