Let’s face it, Europe can’t do shit without US support and there is zero chance US will go into an open war with Russia because they see China as the main threat.
The European union has a combined 1.5 million active military personnel, 5000 MBTs, and over a thousand combined fighter aircraft. As a part of their NATO membership, the vast majority of European forces have ammunition commonality and a standardised command structure.
Yes it would be disorganised, yes it would be a political shit show, but the European countries that are likely to get involved in the event of an intervention have a force and equipment parity with Russia, on top of an enormous disparity in population and economy.
It doesn’t seem particularly wise to dismiss them out of hand.
We now know for a fact that nothing is actually standardized in practice. In fact, lack of standardization with western equipment is now proving to be a nightmare in Ukraine. NATO hasn’t done any serious exercises in literally decades, and vast majority of the 1.5 million military personnel are not active combat personnel.
Europe is now out of basic things like artillery shells and lacks industrial capacity to produce them. On top of that, Russia now has the most seasoned army in the world that’s seen real combat on a massive scale for two years now. There is no parity with Russia here.
And of course, the elephant in the room here is nuclear weapons. A direct conflict between NATO and Russia would almost certainly end in a nuclear exchange. If Europeans genuinely don’t understand this then we are all truly doomed. On the bright side we won’t have to worry about global warming anymore.
We now know for a fact that nothing is actually standardized in practice.
We know that there are issues with Standardisation, but I haven’t seen anything to suggest that literally the entire stockpile of European weaponry managed to fall outside of standardisation without NATO noticing.
In fact, lack of standardization with western equipment is now proving to be a nightmare in Ukraine.
Ukraine has been getting the bottom of the barrel of the US and NATO military stockpiles. Mostly stuff from the mid cold war, on schedule for decommissioning.
NATO hasn’t done any serious exercises in literally decades, and vast majority of the 1.5 million military personnel are not active combat personnel.
They’re doing a few right now, and on top of that, they’ve been fighting low-level proxy wars across the middle east for the past two decades.
This is true, but there have also been no calls for wartime recruitment or conscription, the number has the potential to multiply to several times larger within a year or two.
Europe is now out of basic things like artillery shells and lacks industrial capacity to produce them.
European shell manufacturing capability has apparently doubled in the past two years and is supposedly on track to do so again by 2025, with current US and EU manufacturing at roughly half of what Russia is currently producing. They do still have some stockpiles, and on top of 155mm shells, the various European NATO powers have large stockpiles of cruise missiles, bombs and rockets.
On top of that, Russia now has the most seasoned army in the world that’s seen real combat on a massive scale for two years now.
While true, they have also suffered considerable losses (though probably less than Ukraine proportionally). To effectively respond to NATO boots on the ground, they’d conservatively need to double their current number of active personnel, which lessens the experience advantage.
And of course, the elephant in the room here is nuclear weapons. A direct conflict between NATO and Russia would almost certainly end in a nuclear exchange. If Europeans genuinely don’t understand this then we are all truly doomed. On the bright side we won’t have to worry about global warming anymore.
Of course, though brinkmanship does cut both ways. Is Russia willing to risk nuclear war to take Kiev? Probably not IMO.
There’s also the potential to limit it to a conventional conflict if it’s made very clear there is no intention to stray outside the pre-war borders of Ukraine.
We know that there are issues with Standardisation, but I haven’t seen anything to suggest that literally the entire stockpile of European weaponry managed to fall outside of standardisation without NATO noticing.
Then you really haven’t been paying attention. For example, all the tanks use different platforms, they use different kinds of chassis, different barrels, different ammunition, and so on. This means that you have to train crews for each specific tank, and if one tank breaks down, you cannot use parts of another tank to repair it. This is the case for vast majority of NATO equipment. This is now openly admitted by western media.
Ukraine has been getting the bottom of the barrel of the US and NATO military stockpiles. Mostly stuff from the mid cold war, on schedule for decommissioning.
That’s not true, UK, France, and Germany all have publicly stated that their militaries are no longer capable of any real combat due to depletion of weapons and ammunition after two years of the conflict.
This is true, but there have also been no calls for wartime recruitment or conscription, the number has the potential to multiply to several times larger within a year or two.
Nobody in Europe wants to fight Russia, the calls for conscription are much more likely to topple pro NATO governments than accomplish anything else. People are already literally rioting all across Europe, and anti war parties are gaining popularity by the day. People of Europe aren’t interested in having a war with Russia.
https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-russia-ukraine-war-defense-france-germany-soldiers-army/
European shell manufacturing capability has apparently doubled in the past two years and is supposedly on track to do so again by 2025, with current US and EU manufacturing at roughly half of what Russia is currently producing. They do still have some stockpiles, and on top of 155mm shells, the various European NATO powers have large stockpiles of cruise missiles, bombs and rockets.
Nothing of the sort happened. Only thing EU managed to achieve was to drive up the price.
In October, NATO’s senior military officer, Adm. Rob Bauer, said that the price for one 155mm shell had risen from 2,000 euros ($2,171) at the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion to 8,000 euros ($8,489.60).
Europe promised to deliver a million shells to Ukraine, and they only managed to scrape up around 300k. Europe is currently actively hunting for shells from around the world because none can be produced in Europe.
This should not be surprising to anybody because steel production is energy intensive, and energy prices in Europe are now through the roof. Steel industry has been shutting down as opposed to expanding.
Meanwhile, Russia is already producing three times more artillery shells than all of the west combined. That’s US and EU together!
- https://raport.valisluureamet.ee/2024/en/1-russian-armed-forces-and-the-war-in-ukraine/1-3-russian-military-industry/
- https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html
While true, they have also suffered considerable losses (though probably less than Ukraine proportionally). To effectively respond to NATO boots on the ground, they’d conservatively need to double their current number of active personnel, which lessens the experience advantage.
The only western source that provides any actual methodology puts Russian losses at around 47k, it’s absurd to call that considerable for a country with a population of 140 million.
https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng
Of course, though brinkmanship does cut both ways. Is Russia willing to risk nuclear war to take Kiev? Probably not IMO.
Russia has already stated that they will continue to push in Ukraine and will directly engage NATO if NATO decides to put boots on the ground. This an existential war for Russia, and it’s not about Ukraine. The war is about NATO expansion, and Russia will call NATO bluffs.
it’s absurd to call that considerable for a country with a population of 140 million.
I mean, most of this population is elderly or otherwise unfit for active combat (including due to lack of experience and training). Send my overweight ass to a war zone, what would happen? I die and possibly get someone else killed
Sure, but it’s not like things are any different in Europe.
This means that you have to train crews for each specific tank, and if one tank breaks down, you cannot use parts of another tank to repair it.
Sure, but they have trained crews for each specific tank.
Nobody in Europe wants to fight Russia, the calls for conscription are much more likely to topple pro NATO governments than accomplish anything else. People are already literally rioting all across Europe, and anti war parties are gaining popularity by the day.
I don’t know what riots you’re talking about, the pension protests in France? The farmers protests in Germany, Belgium and the UK?
Anti-Russian sentiment is very strong, especially in Eastern Europe, and most of the large nations are likely to have enough volunteers to remove the need for conscription in the mid term.
Nothing of the sort happened. Only thing EU managed to achieve was to drive up the price.
Ammunition production across Europe has significantly increased, and continues to increase, the price has gone up per shell sure, but that doesn’t contradict an increase in production.
The only western source that provides any actual methodology puts Russian losses at around 47k, it’s absurd to call that considerable for a country with a population of 140 million.
The source you linked doesn’t place losses “around” 47k, it established 47k as the absolute minimum, and provides a higher estimate based on excess mortality. With roughly 100k dead, you’d normally expect to see 2-3x that in injuries rending personnel unfit for service with modern battlefield medicine, and 300-400k gone is more than the entire Russian active combat personnel before the escalation of the war in 2022.
Russia has already stated that they will continue to push in Ukraine and will directly engage NATO if NATO decides to put boots on the ground. This an existential war for Russia, and it’s not about Ukraine. The war is about NATO expansion, and Russia will call NATO bluffs.
Assuming it is a bluff. Russia is already bordered by NATO in the Baltic for hundreds of miles, it can survive a NATO Ukraine in the same way that China has survived being surrounded by US allies along it’s entire eastern border.
Sure, but they have trained crews for each specific tank.
And that’s precisely the problem. All the logistics become a lot more complicated, and when you lose people and equipment, it’s that much more difficult toe work around that. This is why any serious military actually standardizes so that you have common platforms with fungible parts, and people can be trained once and use all the equipment. It should be obvious why standardization is important when you’re in actual combat.
I don’t know what riots you’re talking about, the pension protests in France? The farmers protests in Germany, Belgium and the UK?
There are farmers rioting all over France, Belgium, Italy, Spain, Poland, and Germany. The videos are all over the internet. Do you live in some alternate reality?
Anti-Russian sentiment is very strong, especially in Eastern Europe, and most of the large nations are likely to have enough volunteers to remove the need for conscription in the mid term.
Russophobia is not going to be enough to get people to go and die in a war. As the plitico link in my last reply explains, people are actually leaving the army right now. And if Europeans are going to conscript then at that point people are being forced to fight against their will by their regimes.
Ammunition production across Europe has significantly increased, and continues to increase, the price has gone up per shell sure, but that doesn’t contradict an increase in production.
I provided you actual numbers that show this is not the case to any significant degree. Ammunition production in Europe is a joke.
The source you linked doesn’t place losses “around” 47k, it established 47k as the absolute minimum, and provides a higher estimate based on excess mortality. With roughly 100k dead, you’d normally expect to see 2-3x that in injuries rending personnel unfit for service with modern battlefield medicine, and 300-400k gone is more than the entire Russian active combat personnel before the escalation of the war in 2022.
I’m not sure how you managed to jump from 47k to 100k here, and of course people who are injured mostly end up returning to service after recovery.
Assuming it is a bluff. Russia is already bordered by NATO in the Baltic for hundreds of miles, it can survive a NATO Ukraine in the same way that China has survived being surrounded by US allies along it’s entire eastern border.
After spending two years at war, Russia isn’t just going to give up and go home at this point. Hopefully people who are in actual European militaries aren’t utter imbeciles, and they can see what an utter disaster a war with Russia would be for Europe. Unfortunately, there are lots of imbeciles in EU politics and within the general EU public, so can’t rule this scenario out entirely.
what are they gonna shoot though, since the EU’s arms industry cant supply a moderately long fart, let alone a real war…
Europe+Canada has 1.28 million active personnel when you don’t count Turkey. Most of those can’t actually be sent.
Greece (140k) will not send anything while turkey exists. Spain (133k) can’t send more than tiny units (single digit thousands) in case of war with Morocco. France and UK (200k each) can’t send more than half of that considering their other imperialism.
Effectively, they can spare at absolute most 820k. Less, considering they have presence in international missions and need to duplicate command structures at home and at the front.
I wouldn’t expect more than 410k actual combat personnel. You start counting how many brigades the western countries have and it’s single digits.
Albania: 40 T-55 (old af, Type 59, effectively 0)
Austria: 56 Leo 2A4
Belgium: 0
Bulgaria: 90 T-72
Canadá: 20 Leo 2A6, 54 Leo 2A4
Croatia: 77 T-72 (M-84 variant)
Czechia: 30 T-72, 14 Leo 2A4
Denmark: 48 Leo 2A7
Estonia: 0
Finland: 100 Leo 2A6, 139 Leo 2A4
France: 406 Leclerc
Germany: 310 Leo 2A5 to 2A8
Greece: (not counted) 1345 tanks, of which 353 modern Leo 2A4 and 2A6
Hungary: 44 Leo 2A7, 12 Leo 2A4, 34 T-72
Ireland: 0
Italy: 200 Ariete
Latvia: 3 T-55 (old af, effectively 0)
Lithuania: 0
North Macedonia: 10 T-72, 98 T-55 (effectively 0)
Moldova: 10 T-64 (effectively 0)
Montenegro: 0
Netherlands: 20 Leo 2A6
Norway: 30 Leo 2A4 (after 8 donated to Ukraine)
Poland: 112 T-72 (PT-91 variant), 114 Leo 2A4, 105 Leo 2A5 (after donations to Ukraine)
Portugal: 37 Leo 2A6
Romania: 717 T-55 (incl. TR-85 variants, old af, effectively 0)
Slovakia: 22 T-72, 6 Leo 2A4
Slovenia: 28 T-72 (M-84 variant)
Spain: 239 Leo 2A6, 54 Leo 2A4 (after donations)
Sweden: 120 Leo 2A5
Switzerland : 250 Leo 2A4 (not participating)
Turkey: 354 Leo 2A4, 1894 old-modernized tanks (not participating)
United Kingdom: 134 Challenger 2 (after donations)
USA: 2509 M1 Abrams
TOTAL = 1542 Leo 2 + 398 T-72 (likely lower due to donations) + 406 Leclerc + 200 Ariete + 134 Challenger
TOTAL = 2680 tanks (likely a few hundreds lower due to donations)
The Netherlands has their tanks (all of them?) on a lease from Germany, to give an idea how prepared we would be.
I think it’s a mixed Dutch /German armored brigade too.
Oh tanks? Sure, tons of different ones, though standardisation is somewhat less important for those since they already have the facilities and engineers trained to support them.
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Europe is literally a group of bunch of barking chihuahuas, they can’t do anything lol.
Why the fuck is Macron so hellbent on sending troops to Ukraine? Does he really want to start a nuclear war? He’s putting all our lives on the line, and for what? Latvia doesn’t surprise me one fucking bit, Finland and Sweden are annoying as hell, and I am just so disappointed in Portugal…
If NATO does end up dropping troops and getting our countries in big fucking trouble I really hope non-aligned countries are willing to take in those that don’t want to stick around for the consequences.
Every day I keep getting convinced that it’s not worth staying here…
My theory is that he’s just using this rhetoric to advance his position within the EU bureaucracy and to insulate himself from any criticism that he wasn’t doing enough when the whole thing falls apart. He’ll be like see I wanted to send troops in but it’s all you fuckers who were scared.
I’m glad he’s gambling with our lives just to elevate his status. Even if troops are never dropped I’m not thrilled with them threatening to do it anyway even though they are well aware the consequences.
Yeah, it’s absolutely batshit insane rhetoric to be using, but I think we can all agree that sanity left the building in the west a long time ago.
I’m not a Putin simp or anything but it’s funny how the west was crying about how he’s a “madman” and a “psycho” and “insane,” yet they’re the ones who are putting the rest of the world at risk and hungering for more, even worse, violent conflict.
Indeed, I mean just looks at the insanity on display here
She said Putin understands people are “afraid of the nuclear war” so plays into that to shock the public.
“It is a trap, a trap of self-deterrence,” the Estonian politician said. “Because if we are afraid, then we start to self-deter – and this is what Putin wants.
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/vladimir-putin-afraid-war-nato-143037047.html
I know multiple people irl who would look at this and see absolutely nothing wrong with this rhetoric. In fact, they will support every word
I guess we might not have to worry about global warming being a problem
I think they are trying to cause the conflict to grow into a cold stalemate. Their idea probably is that they’ll station troops near the front, and Russia will not risk advancing against , engaging with or bombing them for fear of retaliation. It’s a play to prevent Russia from annexing more territory. Putin made it clear that Odessa, Kharkov and Kiev are Russian lands.
They are essentially calling Putin’s bluff, and if they are wrong, we all get to die in a nuclear holocaust.
By the way, Macron’s generals will never let him do something like this. Ever since Macron started making these comments, they’ve been leaking information to the press on the horrid state of the French army, and a few have made it known that they think Macron is acting like a fool. I sure hope they can save the day.
That leak is promising at least. Call me crazy, bluff or not, I don’t think I’d ever take the gamble these NATO folks are willing to bet.
Putin made it clear that Odessa, Kharkov and Kiev are Russian lands.
When did he say this? My impression is that while Russia is fine annexing the breakaway eastern parts of Ukraine with large numbers of ethnic Russians, it’s not eager to try to govern what will likely be an unfriendly population in the west.
In his Tucker Carlson interview when he was talking about the history of the Rus, he stated multiple times that Kiev is part of Russia.
In his state of the union before the elections he declared that the Black Sea should be secured. Which means Odessa and Mikolayv will be annexed as well. This would make sense, as it would also connect the Transnistria region with the rest of Russia.
A year ago, when they stated which areas they would incorporate into Russia, they claimed Zaporizshia, Kherson, Luhansk and Donetsk. But they’ve also stated this is the minimal goal, and they’d like to have a buffer between Russian lands and the West. Which logically means, they’ll incorporate in some fashion the Kharkov, Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy oblasts, possibly Chernihvy too.
From there, you are already at the Dnieper river and Kiev isn’t that far. If Ukraine insists on not surrendering, then I assume they’ll annex everything up to the Dnieper, which will include Kiev.
Ukraine will likely remain as a rump state, and Russia will most likely impose a population exchange as part of a ceasefire, to ensure mostly compliant Russian-speakers remain in their newly administered lands.
Does he really want to start a nuclear war?
At least I won’t have to go into work, and can get my tan done all at once.
My bones never get enough sun and are always pearly white. I can finally change that.
His wife is 20 years older than him and he wants to die together with her.
Oh my god I forgot about that. Wasn’t he groomed by her?
Yes, besides being older, they had a relationship when he was at school, and he was underage, and she was his teacher, She should have been arrested.
Why wasn’t she thrown into prison? Is France weird?
In my opinion of someone who has never lived there and has an biased view, yes it is strange
Why are you disappointed with Portugal? This country is the happiest lap dog I’ve ever seen. Our politicians are always ready to embrace NATO’s policy, even if our contributions are pathetic and meaningless.
Familial connection mostly, and what could’ve been with the Carnation Revolution that was unfortunately sabotaged. It just makes me sad every time.
Also I thought Portugal was in a weird financial spot, like they didn’t have enough in their own country let alone send it to another. Guess I was wrong.
Looks they weren’t able to sweep away all the fantoches de Kissinger…
Have any good reading on the Carnation Revolution? I have a pretty surface-level understanding and it seems fascinating.
A People’s History of The Portuguese Revolution by Raquel Varela is a book about it, I know I used it for the paper I wrote comparing the Carnation Revolution and the Cuban Revolution. Theres also The Revolution before the Revolution: Late authoritarianism and student protest in Portugal by Guya Accornero. If you know anything about the Cuban revolution you’ll actually find quite a bit of similarities with Portugal when it comes to Student protests and Unions playing a big role in carrying out the larger movement, both of course played out differently and the results were also different too. Those two books should be a good start, I’m sure others, especially comrades from Portugal, have better sources for you. The article “External Factors’ Influence on Course of the April 25, 1974 Revolution in Portugal” by D.N. Ermolovich talks about the US meddling in Portugal post-revolution. Although that one is in Russian, hopefully there’s an English translation out there but… yeah. I remember reading about how Mario Soares (leader of the Portuguese Socialist Party post-rev) was affiliated with the CIA so there’s that factor.
France about to get a rough lesson on how capable they are as a country without the us mic behind them.
Well we’re certainly doomed if Europe has both the ability and the intention of honoring a promise they made to Ukraine.
please God no please god no please God no please God no please God no please God no please God no I’ve worked so fucking hard to get out my depression hell and just barely will to live returned I don’t want to lose it God no God no God no God no God no no no no
