They’re expecting to gain some value like market share from the investment. I expect that the whole thing is just going to flop. It’s basically Second Life, but you have to purchase special hardware to use it.
Dumping money into an idea until you get a monopoly you can exploit works in some cases. However, metaverse has to compete for attention with all the other stuff like shows, games, news, tiktoks, and all the other ways people entertain themselves. And pulling out your phone is a much lower barrier than putting on a vr headset. I think that’s the fatal flaw of the whole idea, it’s just too much effort for most people to bother. On top of that, the tech simply isn’t there yet. The headsets are comfortable to use for like an hour tops, and lots of people end up getting nauseous or getting a headache from using them further limiting the appeal. I expect this idea will end up having a dedicated niche following, but it’s just not going to reach mainstream.
While I don’t think the metaverse is a good idea, it’s too early to judge its success. It has incredible potential. When you look at what an immersive virtual world could offer you, ideas of hardware getting in the way seem like paltry excuses.
I mean, can you imagine the desire, of being able to leave behind your real world, your dirty, exhausting, imperfect real world, where you are weak and ugly and unsuccessful and going to a virtual world where you can experience whatever you want?
No, it’s not real and won’t be able to convince you it is for another fifty years or so, and yes, the hidden downsides will soon be found to be worse than social media, likely worse than addictions to drugs and mental illnesses, but it won’t matter, none of it will matter, because the pull is too strong. If the metaverse becomes entirely a thing, people will throw away their lives for it, and we will all likely hate it and want it.
To judge a potential future metaverse by looking at half life is like judging modern smartphones by looking at brick phones from thirty years. Half life is a very primitive version of what could be.
I am dramatizing here, and looking quite far into the future through science fiction lens, but then, that’s always been the thing about the metaverse, hasn’t it? Tech oligopolies bringing into reality what dystopian science fiction books warned against, not held up as an ideal. But there’s money, and that’s all that matters.
If you want more practical examples, just look at what Zuckerberg showed off, meeting with people. We all know the incredible convenience of being able to video call someone, to sit in the comfort of our home yet see and talk to them. Now take that to entirely new level, where you can sit in your home, and yet be with someone else in almost every sense. That is convenience.
It may seem like a silly idea, but silly ideas do not convince all the biggest companies to invest billions. There’s money to be made, and that’s all that matters.
I mean, can you imagine the desire, of being able to leave behind your real world, your dirty, exhausting, imperfect real world, where you are weak and ugly and unsuccessful and going to a virtual world where you can experience whatever you want?
All just through a head set? I honestly don’t quite buy this (admitting fully that I might be wrong) and really can’t relate to the desire you are describing either.
It’s not real and won’t look / feel real. So maybe there is a one or two hour entertainment to be had, but I can’t see this overhyped potential and VR being used “everywhere”.
Consider all the video chats we are having since the pandemic at work. What did 80% people do pretty quickly? Turn off their cameras, turn off their mics, while they are browsing the web in the background or doing the dishes, letting the meeting/call pass by. Would any of those go into VR to experience a virtual version of their colleague without being forced? I don’t think so.
Again, I’m not clear on what a virtual world could offer you that stuff like Second Life didn’t already offer. My argument is that hardware simply introduces an additional barrier to the idea that hasn’t caught on to begin with.
VR doesn’t allow you to leave behind your imperfect real world any more than a good show, game, or a book. Having actually used VR, I can firmly say that the level of immersion simply isn’t there. For VR to feel truly immersive you’d likely need to have some kind of a brain/computer interface and we’re many decades away from that. I’m sure headsets will keep getting better and smaller, but real immersion requires simulating other senses as well. Basic stuff like moving around in VR without getting nauseous is an unsolved problem right now.
Meeting people with a VR headset on isn’t really that different from meeting people by looking at the screen. In fact, this kind of stuff seems far more promising to me.
The fact that people are pouring billions into this idea, doesn’t mean that it’s magically going to overcome all the challenges and all the competition. My main argument here is that VR has to compete with other forms of entertainment, and many existing options provide high quality entertainment with a lower entry barrier. This is the fatal flaw that I see in the foreseeable future.
It’s an investment, not a loss. They never expected to be making money here.
They’re expecting to gain some value like market share from the investment. I expect that the whole thing is just going to flop. It’s basically Second Life, but you have to purchase special hardware to use it.
Dumping money into an idea until you get a monopoly you can exploit works in some cases. However, metaverse has to compete for attention with all the other stuff like shows, games, news, tiktoks, and all the other ways people entertain themselves. And pulling out your phone is a much lower barrier than putting on a vr headset. I think that’s the fatal flaw of the whole idea, it’s just too much effort for most people to bother. On top of that, the tech simply isn’t there yet. The headsets are comfortable to use for like an hour tops, and lots of people end up getting nauseous or getting a headache from using them further limiting the appeal. I expect this idea will end up having a dedicated niche following, but it’s just not going to reach mainstream.
While I don’t think the metaverse is a good idea, it’s too early to judge its success. It has incredible potential. When you look at what an immersive virtual world could offer you, ideas of hardware getting in the way seem like paltry excuses.
I mean, can you imagine the desire, of being able to leave behind your real world, your dirty, exhausting, imperfect real world, where you are weak and ugly and unsuccessful and going to a virtual world where you can experience whatever you want?
No, it’s not real and won’t be able to convince you it is for another fifty years or so, and yes, the hidden downsides will soon be found to be worse than social media, likely worse than addictions to drugs and mental illnesses, but it won’t matter, none of it will matter, because the pull is too strong. If the metaverse becomes entirely a thing, people will throw away their lives for it, and we will all likely hate it and want it.
To judge a potential future metaverse by looking at half life is like judging modern smartphones by looking at brick phones from thirty years. Half life is a very primitive version of what could be.
I am dramatizing here, and looking quite far into the future through science fiction lens, but then, that’s always been the thing about the metaverse, hasn’t it? Tech oligopolies bringing into reality what dystopian science fiction books warned against, not held up as an ideal. But there’s money, and that’s all that matters.
If you want more practical examples, just look at what Zuckerberg showed off, meeting with people. We all know the incredible convenience of being able to video call someone, to sit in the comfort of our home yet see and talk to them. Now take that to entirely new level, where you can sit in your home, and yet be with someone else in almost every sense. That is convenience.
It may seem like a silly idea, but silly ideas do not convince all the biggest companies to invest billions. There’s money to be made, and that’s all that matters.
whew
I’m in quite the inspired mood right now
All just through a head set? I honestly don’t quite buy this (admitting fully that I might be wrong) and really can’t relate to the desire you are describing either.
It’s not real and won’t look / feel real. So maybe there is a one or two hour entertainment to be had, but I can’t see this overhyped potential and VR being used “everywhere”.
Consider all the video chats we are having since the pandemic at work. What did 80% people do pretty quickly? Turn off their cameras, turn off their mics, while they are browsing the web in the background or doing the dishes, letting the meeting/call pass by. Would any of those go into VR to experience a virtual version of their colleague without being forced? I don’t think so.
Again, I’m not clear on what a virtual world could offer you that stuff like Second Life didn’t already offer. My argument is that hardware simply introduces an additional barrier to the idea that hasn’t caught on to begin with.
VR doesn’t allow you to leave behind your imperfect real world any more than a good show, game, or a book. Having actually used VR, I can firmly say that the level of immersion simply isn’t there. For VR to feel truly immersive you’d likely need to have some kind of a brain/computer interface and we’re many decades away from that. I’m sure headsets will keep getting better and smaller, but real immersion requires simulating other senses as well. Basic stuff like moving around in VR without getting nauseous is an unsolved problem right now.
Meeting people with a VR headset on isn’t really that different from meeting people by looking at the screen. In fact, this kind of stuff seems far more promising to me.
The fact that people are pouring billions into this idea, doesn’t mean that it’s magically going to overcome all the challenges and all the competition. My main argument here is that VR has to compete with other forms of entertainment, and many existing options provide high quality entertainment with a lower entry barrier. This is the fatal flaw that I see in the foreseeable future.