Russia is building up its forces and combat capabilities for a confrontation with NATO, notes the Latvian Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB) in its report for 2024.
In the public part of the report, the SAB pointed out that since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, European countries face a new but increasingly significant threat – sabotage and physical attacks against targets in Europe organized by Russian intelligence and security services.
In 2024, this trend had intensified significantly, and Russian organised sabotage is affecting more and more European countries. The new trend of Russian attacks confirms that Russia is already practically in direct confrontation with western countries, SAB concluded in its report.
According to the bureau, the current goal of the Russian intelligence and security services is to improve their ability to organize sabotage in Europe and is part of Russia’s preparations for a possible military confrontation with NATO in the long term.
[…]
If the war in Ukraine were to be “frozen” and the Russian armed forces no longer suffered significant military losses in active hostilities, they could, for a period of up to five years, implement military augmentation plans in the direction of the north-eastern flank of NATO, including the Baltic, SAB concluded.
In such a case, the Russian military threat to NATO would increase substantially, the bureau stressed.
[…]
The SAB is one of the three Latvian state security institutions that carries out intelligence and counter-intelligence, protection of classified information in accordance with the procedure established by law, as well as carries out and controls the exchange of classified information with international organizations.
There is nothing in the article that supports its headline’s claim. Not a word about Russia building up its forces and combat capabilities. Let alone for a NATO confrontation.
Russia is building up forces for a confrontation with
NATOEuropeNo one should keep thinking for one second that the US would honour the treaty.
It would be the end of the United States being a relevant world player if they failed to honor the treaty. They would be shut out of every single international agreement they’d ever signed and every single contract would be instantly voided. Europe is the US’s biggest trading partner, the tariffs are bad enough but refusing to honor an internationally recognized pact would be the final straw.
No more US military bases in Europe, very unlikely that they would even be allowed to continue operations in Greenland.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Australians pulled out of agreements with them. Although the are not in NATO, the US would have just demonstrated that it is completely unprepared to honor its agreements so why continue the relationship?
The US wants to give Russia parts of Ukraine, end of sanctions, remoing its forces in Europe and no alliance with Ukraine for nothing in return, but the ability to negoiate. That in effect is the end of the alliance between the US and Europe. NATO is basically dead, as the EU is the more logical place to organize such things nowadays.
Yes that means the end of the Western lead world order for better or worse. For Europe and the US for worse, others might profit.
It would be the end of the United States being a relevant world player if they failed to honor the treaty.
Problem is: it would be the end of a free, democratic and peaceful Europe first.
Why? Europe is much more politically stable than the US ever has been and particularly when we have a common enemy we can be quite politically effective.
One of the things people have historically complained about in Europe is the tendency to get involved in America’s wars. The middle Eastern terrorists were never that interested in Europe until after the invasion of Iraq, where we rather painted a target on our backs. How do we stay out of that war we probably wouldn’t have had all the bombings.
So a lot of people will be quite happy that we are now distancing ourselves from America since it’ll prevent us getting mired in whatever political quagmire they get themselves involved in.
Because Europe still highly depends on the weight America provides within NATO to deter aggressors. Given Trump’s statements, it is highly doubtful that they would actually honour Article 5. That is very bad news for countries such as the Baltics or those that missed the memo such as Germany.
We are involved no matter what. The masses of refugees caused by the US meddling in other countries will always be our problem, not the US’s
hey, don’t discount the Canadian Moose :)
Hey, if we need some war crimes done, we know to call the Canadians 😉
And a warning from Denmark https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/denmark-warns-russia-could-quickly-prepare-for-war-in-europe/ar-AA1yPhjj
If the conflict in Ukraine ended or was frozen, however, Russia could free up significant military resources and potentially attack a neighbouring country within six months, the report said.
I don’t want to post each of these pieces individually, and you will read the news anyway, so here’s in the comment section another one on the topic:
[…] EFIS analysts conclude that while “the pace of the Russian military’s rearmament will depend on the duration and outcome of Russia’s war in Ukraine,” Russia is actively mobilising more resources despite the extensive losses on the battlefield. If the conflict in Ukraine were to end under terms favourable to Moscow or become a frozen conflict, the EFIS suggests that Russian forces “will be permanently stationed in more significant numbers than before 24 February 2022” along the borders of NATO member states near Russia—including Estonia […]
Ok, but the border with NATO is much longer now that sweden and finland joined.
>Be putin
>Invade neighbor to prevent NATO expansion
>NATO expands twice instead
>MFW
oh do fuck off they can’t even take Ukraine
the only thing they’ve got is aging nukes and oil
the quicker they dispense with putin the quicker they can start yet again with the russian states
It says, right in the summary:
If the war in Ukraine were to be “frozen”
That’s why Russia wants to come to the table. They want off this ride long enough to rearm.
