- cross-posted to:
- worldnews@lemmy.ml
- cross-posted to:
- worldnews@lemmy.ml
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Interesting how quickly these articles have started popping up. Not even a week ago they were all “Ukraine’s super duper successful counteroffensive is about to win the war! They’ll be in Moscow by Tuesday!”
I wonder if the libs will get whiplash from this. Hopefully it makes them actually analyse things a bit more closely so they don’t get so easily fooled. Though who am I kidding? They’ll just declare that they knew this all along and pretend they never supported Ukraine.
I definitely expect Ukraine will get thrown under the bus and the west will say they didn’t follow their brilliant advice. There was already wapo article where they’re like Ukraine is reverting back to their old tactics instead of using the brilliant combined arms warfare we taught them. Never mind that the first two weeks of the offensive when they lost 20% of their western equipment and who knows how many people, was them using the CoMbiNeD ArMs tactics NATO taught them. The reality is that Russia has huge minefields, massive artillery superiority, and air dominance. There are no magic tactics that can defeat that.
Oh, I didn’t even think of that. You’re right, they’ll probably blame Ukraine for “fumbling” what should’ve been an “easy victory” They’ll be demoted back to “Asiatic horde” status soon enough I suppose.
It’s going to be interesting to see what happens once it starts sinking in for the Ukrainians that they’re going to be discarded like a used condom by the west.
The amount of weapons shipped to Ukraine that went “missing” only to appear in the hands of various fascist groups throughout Europe is a pretty major clue as to what will happen next.
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Will it start, though? Look at Russian liberals. Still hasn’t clicked. Most are still blaming our issues on “Sovoks” in government and believe Putin is building USSR 2.0
I think there’s going to be a profound psychological impact once it becomes clear that Ukraine isn’t going to win the war because the west abandoned them. There’s also going to be political motivation for whoever is in charge to cultivate this view since blaming the failure of the west to provide support will increasingly be the excuse from the regime. We’re already seeing the start of that with Zaluzhny blaming the failure of the offensive on lack of F16s and air defence.
It’s important to recall that the reason Ukraine decided to renege on the peace deal in March was because the west said they would back them to the end whatever it takes. Ukrainians bought into the whole mythology that the west has unlimited resources, and can just give them whatever they need indefinitely.
Now the tap is running dry, and I think Ukrainians are going to interpret it as the west not wanting to give them what they need as opposed to genuinely not being able to. It’s impossible for them to believe that Russia could possibly outproduce the west and defeat western weapons on the battlefield. This goes against the whole narrative of western superiority.
There’s also going to be political motivation for whoever is in charge to cultivate this view since blaming the failure of the west to provide support will increasingly be the excuse from the regime. We’re already seeing the start of that with Zaluzhny blaming the failure of the offensive on lack of F16s and air defence.
Thing is, this type of “stab in the back” narrative would still require an unhealthy amount of nationalism (think British “lions led by donkeys” shite from WW1), and this will inevitably clash with the annexation (can’t think of a different term at the moment) of Crimea, DNR, Zaporozhye, etc.
And frankly it won’t undo the damage already done by weapons and infrastructure destruction, nor will it help bring socialism to the region
Cynically speaking, the best option for Russia will be to annex friendly and neutral areas in the east, and then leave a dysfunctional rump state in the west which will ultimately become a problem for NATO. It won’t be able to function on its own, and it will be resentful of the west. However, they’re not going to be able to let it collapse entirely either as it would create a huge immigrant crisis in the west. So, it’s just going to be an economic black hole they’re going to have to keep throwing money into at the time their own economies are being eroded.
I don’t think there’s much hope of bringing socialism to the region or even to Russia in the near future, but breaking western hegemony over the world will at least create the conditions for socialism in the future.
Meanwhile Ukraine itself and it’s most hardline supporters in the West are blaming Western governments for not giving them enough weapons or taking too long to do so. The recriminations are already starting. Remember that old saying: victory has many fathers but defeat is always an orphan. Nobody wants to admit it was their fault, everyone blaming everyone else, and in the end what we will see is a stab-in-the-back type myth forming and the Nazis seeking to take revenge on the West for this perceived betrayal after they are defeated by Russia. A wave of terrorist attacks by extremely radicalized people with combat experience and NATO provided weapons will sweep Europe at some point in the next few years.
The amount of explosives, small arms, drones, ammo and even stuff like handheld anti-armor and anti-air rocket systems that has already been lost track of and has entered black market circulation is likely to be absolutely staggering and i suspect we will all be shocked when we learn decades from now just how bad the leakage has been. And that is the kind of stuff that sadly - and i really fucking hope this doesn’t happen but we have to be prepared for the worst - will be used to attack a crowded event or take down a passenger plane by some crazed lunatic shouting “Slava Ukraini”. What the West has done in arming these psychopaths has been utterly criminal, and it will be Europeans, not Americans an ocean away, who will suffer and are suffering the worst blowback.
I’m not sure we can avoid this anymore but the least we can do is stop this insanity asap and turn off the fucking weapons faucet already. But that won’t happen because this is far too profitable for the defense contractors and European leaders have collectively worked themselves up into a blind, frothing-at-the-mouth-type, Russia-hating frenzy of anger and fear with their only solution to every setback being more escalation, pressing harder still on the gas pedal despite heading for a solid brick wall. They are now more gung-ho about the war than even their Washington masters are, truly a tail wagging the dog situation. And while we all understand that ultimately it was the US who started this and who bears the greatest responsibility, Europeans should under no circumstances be absolved because they have been enthusiastic accomplices.
Yeah, I very much expect that’s what’s going to happen in the near future. Once these people realize they got used, they’re going to bite the hand that feeds them. Given that something like 70% of the weapons the west was sending disappeared, we can imagine that a lot of these weapons are all over Europe at this point.
CoMbiNeD ArMs tactics NATO taught them
They forgot the most important element of the combination in these “combined arms” - bribing the everliving crap out of enemy leaders and fostering fifth columns.
Not that there weren’t attempts, but hardly to the degree of Iraq
Doing coups is basically the only thing NATO is actually good at.
It’s absolutely an intentional metered roll out to ease the public into it. I give it two years max before they start writing about fascist elements in Ukraine (again) and wringing their hands over “nobody could have seen this coming”. Minus all of us who saw it coming.
Once they got people used to that, they can just scapegoat Ukraine for everything else too. They already did for the nordstream bombing.
Considering this has happened a dozen times by now, no they won’t analyze things a bit more closely.
Yeah, it’ll probably just claim that Ukraine “tricked” the west, and austerity measures pushed onto whatever rump state remains will be justified with “they tricked us, so it is ok to basically have them as slave labour, they have different values to us.”
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I wouldn’t say they are “in the right” just that they have reasonable wants and have tried every diplomatic option already. The west backed them into a corner and they stood their ground. At least more people are realising that this war isn’t just Frodo taking the ring to Mordor to defeat Sauron. (Do libs read LOTR? I guess they’ve watched the movies.)
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Yeah, they already call us “red fash” and try to lump us in with PatSocs. The semantics are annoying, but it is important to clarify our positions and resist easy answers.
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Right now at least there are a fair few lib lurkers. They’ve been told we’re all evil Putin puppets who hate freedom and love violence. We need to clarify our positions for the sake of the “audience” I guess. (Only if you feel like it though, this is just my personal perspective on how to deal with the reddit influx).
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Russian shill says what?
Adorable. Cute. Have a cookie and go play with the other kids. 🍪
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More like 1985. Perestroika has allowed for unprecedented liberal infestation, and the ideological rot that culminated in 1991 USSR dissolution. Then there was the 2003 orange “revolution”, which already spouted a large number of the same vile rhetoric you hear now.
This is a fantastic read from the Chinese perspective on how the west fucked Ukraine after USSR broke up https://archive.ph/2ppei
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Unrelated but I got a proper wave of nostalgia seeing the GenZedong reddit page how it was a couple of years ago or whatever, miss that place
I feel like we more or less have the equivalent here now without ever having to worry about a corp shutting us down. :)
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It won’t be over even then. The end of the second Chechen war did not cease hostilities. Same here
Yeah, it’s going to take a while for things to start resembling any sort of normality after this.
Gross.
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This coming from the Telegraph which is a shameless Atlanticist propaganda outlet is interesting to say the least.
Yeah, this is one of the most rabidly pro NATO outlets out there which says a lot.
Look at the Russian shills in this thread. Y’all know they’re committing war crimes, right?
Have you talked with anyone about our positions? I ask because if you were to reduce our position down to one simple aspect of it, it would be “America bad,” with no trace of “Russia good.” Some people actually do try to make fun of us by saying all we care about is “America bad,” and that does, at least, show some indication of having basic familiarity with our takes.
Communists want the war to end and blame NATO for provoking and prolonging it. Naturally, this is not from a place of cheerleading for another oligarchical government, like Russia. There is a lot of background to explain, if you just popped in and are unfamiliar.
Sadly, this one has a terminal case of the “smug” and won’t actually listen to anything you have to say.
It’s always for the other people listening though who will. ;)
l still support the proletariat of Ukraine even as an evil Cheddar Cheese Pringle, but I’ve come to understand that Ukraine’s government does not.
As an aside, do you think ceding Donetsk and Luhansk who were just begging to join Russia anyways would have prevented the war?
Possibly, it certainly would’ve eased tensions and delayed any actual conflict.
I think Russia is also too concerned about NATO presence on their largest European border to really allow anything other than Ukraine not joining NATO and the cessation of shelling in the Donbass (and honestly, probably annexation of them too). Plus they would probably want Ukraine to officially recognize Crimea as Russian territory. So basically everything they’ve been trying to do diplomatically for the past decade and have been ignored on. This war could’ve been easily avoided had the west and Ukraine been willing to work diplomatically. But the west can’t profit from that.
I love how people here are so polite, even to trolls that come just to stir shit up.
And they hate us for that.
Look at the Russian shills in this thread. Y’all know they’re committing war crimes, right?
I HATE FAKE TRANSPARENCY PNGS AAAAAAAAAA
War crimes are committed by every side in every war. Unless there’s evidence that one side is committing some wildly disproportionate amount/severity of war crimes (I’ve seen none here), pointing out one side’s crimes and getting outraged is just doing propaganda.
The one possible exception here is pointing out your own side’s war crimes in an effort to minimize them, controlling what you can control. There’s certainly no effort to do that on the Ukranian side.
