In 1966, after years of friction with the US over whether France should have its own independent nuclear deterrent, the French president, Charles de Gaulle, withdrew his country from Nato’s integrated command (not, however, from the alliance itself – a common misconception) and asked all US forces stationed in France to leave. In response, the US secretary of state, Dean Rusk, asked de Gaulle: “Does that include the dead Americans in military cemeteries as well?”
In a single weekend, JD Vance’s direct attacks on European democracy at the Munich Security Conference and his meeting with far-right, anti-European political forces in Germany, have given de Gaulle his historic vindication.
There are some things that you avoid saying for as long as you can, for fear that just uttering the words will help bring them into being.
I predicted that’s how the war in Ukraine was likely to end three years ago. People like @poVoq@slrpnk.net ridiculed me, and told me I was an idiot, a Putler puppet, and that I was utterly clueless. Well here we are.
Rather presumptuous for you to say you know how it ends now.
It already has. Russia and US are deciding the terms as we speak. Europe is going to be left to hang, and it’s pretty clear from the speech Vance gave that the bromance between US and Europe is now over.
No, Trump has asked Europe for something, and Europe has given no indication whatsoever that they will go along with it. Indeed, in the only meeting that the major European militaries had together to discuss it, it became pretty apparent that most of them were not on board.
Anyhow, I, like you, will announce that I already won our debate without waiting for your reply.
Last I checked, Europe wasn’t invited to the talks. Also Trump isn’t asking Europe, he’s telling Europe how it’s going to be. Europe on its own can’t keep the war going, and European militaries are a joke. If you still don’t understand this, then just wait and see what happens. You can announce whatever nonsense you like, but reality will asset itself in the near future. One of us will be right and the other will be wrong.
The EU will capitulate to keep the US military in the EU. To be candid, I think the USA is an evil empire, but I’m more afraid for the world if the chauvanist Europeans ever had strong militaries again. Their whole culture is based on colonialism and exploitation. A weak europe is good for the world.
Once the current tantrum ends, that’s what I expect will happen as well because they frankly have no other choice now. That said though, it’s not at all clear that the US will stay even if Europe begs them too.
I’ll be honest, I’ve said the same in the past. But Europe is slowly waking up. They are talking about a €700b package for Ukraine which would make the US contribution so far look pretty paltry by comparison. They have some of the best arms manufacturers in the world and can produce anything the US can, often better.
They have a lot larger population than the US and 3x that of Russia. They have a similarly sized economy (10x that of Russia). All they really have to do is scale up more. They’ve already almost doubled their military expenditures in the last decade already. If they pick up the pace, they could be at US levels of military expenditure relatively soon.
It would be a pretty trivial task for Europe to defeat Russia on its own if it set its mind to it.
Thing is that you can’t shoot money. EU tried to ramp up their shell production, and it was an utter failure. Russia is able to produce 3x the shells of all the west combined, and US is by far the biggest western producer. Meanwhile, Europe has consistently struggled to supply even modest arms packages. This is a sobering read on the reality of the situation.
European militaries are in a deplorable state. Here’s what things look like in UK right now.
- There are now fewer than 75,000 of active troops in Britain. The UK could feasibly deploy at most a brigade, between 3-5,000 troops, and a Corps level Headquarters which would probably be needed, for between 24-36 months.
- The housing program for the military is dreadful. Equipment programmes are always delayed and overbudget, and often produce dreadful kit. Often enough there is no kit at all.
- Much of the artillery regiments have no weapons and/or very little ammunition, everything having been sent to Ukraine and only a few replacements obtained.
- Many regiments and battalions are still using obsolete equipment while they wait for new vehicles that should have been delivered long ago.
France and Germany aren’t much different, and these are the major military powers in Europe.
You also seem to be labouring under the delusion that Europe is unified as a single country which it is not. Russia has a state owned industrial complex that is able to produce massive amounts of weapons cheaply. Europe is a bunch of different countries with privatized military industries that produce weapons on artisanal scale.
There is absolutely nothing easy about ramping up military production. Producing things like steel is an energy intensive process, and Europe is in an energy crisis right now. Hence it’s very difficult for Europe to do serious military production on its own.
The reality is that Europe’s looming loss of the US security umbrella exposes a web of existential vulnerabilities, none of which can be resolved quickly or painlessly. The sheer scale of rebuilding self-sufficiency is a decades-long overhaul with no guarantee of success.
First problem is that Europe imports 60% of its energy, with natural gas prices already inflated by post-Ukraine war sanctions and the loss of Russian pipelines. Transitioning to domestic renewables or reviving nuclear power would require trillions in infrastructure investment into grids, storage, and reactors.
As a concrete example, Germany’s Energiewende, launched in 2010, has only reduced fossil fuel use by 15%. Additionally, solar infrastructure relies on lithium and cobalt dominated by China. Without access to cheap energy, Europe faces either energy rationing or permanent deindustrialization as factories relocate to cheaper markets.
Having outsourced its military-industrial capacity to the US, Europe now has to rebuild domestic arms production. Doing so requires massive investments in establishing supply chains and retooling of civilian sectors. However, decades of offshoring has eroded existing technical expertise in Europe. Just training a new generation of engineers and machinists could take a whole generation. Furthermore, creating self-sufficient supply chains is a difficult process with many steps, each step depending on the previous one. A single bottleneck, such as missing rare-earth refinery, can derail entire sectors for years.
Another problem is that Europe lacks domestic access to steel, titanium, and rare earths, forcing further reliance on external suppliers like China. Even if Europe started today, it would take decades to see tangible results, and that’s assuming political unity holds.
The EU member states disagree on everything from debt sharing to defense priorities. Eastern Europe demands immediate rearmament, Germany resists militarization, and France pushes for strategic autonomy. Meanwhile, nationalist parties are gaining ground, threatening to fragment the bloc further. Even if consensus emerged, funding this transition would require further cutting social programs, which is political suicide in countries already reeling from inflation and austerity.
Europe’s security crisis is a slow-motion collapse. There are no shortcuts to untangling energy dependency, reviving industry, or forging supply chains. By the time Europe might achieve autonomy, economic and geopolitical forces might make the whole EU project obsolete.
The funny part about all this is that the notion that Russia would militarily occupy Europe has always been a pure fantasy. However, what’s absolutely certain is that Russia will exploit the political chaos in Europe caused by collapsing living standards, a crisis Europe itself created.
The most likely outcome here is that countries like Hungary and Slovakia exist the EU, and normalize relations with Russia. They might even join BRICS. And that may even happen with the pillars of the EU like France and Germany when RN or AfD inevitably get in power.
Everything you say is true, however, Europe is only fighting Russia here. Russia also started with a deplorable state of production and ramped up. They have been fighting with their Soviet stockpile which is now all but depleted. Europe and Ukraine together can easily outproduce Russia if they put their minds to it. In the most important area, drones, Ukraine already out produces Russia 3 to 1. Artillery is a lot less important when you produce more than a million drones per year.
Yes there are challenges. But Europe is still the 800 pound gorilla when facing Russia. As long as they stay unified (hell they can afford to lose Hungary and Slovakia even), they will manage it. Now of course there is no guarantee for that, but they have been making their contingency plans for Trump for the last 4 years. I think they at least have a decent chance of managing this situation well.
How was was it not over two years ago?
Feb. 2022 President Biden on Nord Stream 2 Pipeline if Russia Invades Ukraine: “We will bring an end to it.” Sep. 2022 
Dec. 2022 U.S. LNG exports both a lifeline and a drain for Europe in 2023 Feb. 2025 
Edit to add: This guy’s head is still full of Borrell’s garden vs. jungle brainworms and Western Cold War II propaganda, calling China, “an authoritarian state with imperialist territorial designs, colonialist economic policies all over the African continent and an atrocious human rights record.”
We’re no longer pushing the Ukraine sailboat theory? Or did the Americans supply the boat?
I think the Andromeda theory was sandwiched between these two:
Better to be alone than …
Exactly what Putin has been engineering for years.
What no material analysis does to an mf.
Maybe Dems should run a 100 year old next time.
